High Rents and Land Use Regulation

photo by cincy Project

The Federal Reserve’s Devin Bunten has posted Is the Rent Too High? Aggregate Implications of Local Land-Use Regulation. It is a technical paper about an important subject. It has implications for those who are concerned about the lack of affordable housing in high-growth areas. The abstract reads,

Highly productive U.S. cities are characterized by high housing prices, low housing stock growth, and restrictive land-use regulations (e.g., San Francisco). While new residents would benefit from housing stock growth in cities with highly productive firms, existing residents justify strict local land-use regulations on the grounds of congestion and other costs of further development. This paper assesses the welfare implications of these local regulations for income, congestion, and urban sprawl within a general-equilibrium model with endogenous regulation. In the model, households choose from locations that vary exogenously by productivity and endogenously according to local externalities of congestion and sharing. Existing residents address these externalities by voting for regulations that limit local housing density. In equilibrium, these regulations bind and house prices compensate for differences across locations. Relative to the planner’s optimum, the decentralized model generates spatial misallocation whereby high-productivity locations are settled at too-low densities. The model admits a straightforward calibration based on observed population density, expenditure shares on consumption and local services, and local incomes. Welfare and output would be 1.4% and 2.1% higher, respectively, under the planner’s allocation. Abolishing zoning regulations entirely would increase GDP by 6%, but lower welfare by 5.9% because of greater congestion.

The important sentence from the abstract is that “Welfare and output would be 1.4% and 2.1% higher, respectively, under the planner’s allocation.” Those are significant effects when we are talking about  real people and real places. The introduction provides a bit more context for the study:

Neighborhoods in productive, high-rent regions have very strict controls on housing development and very limited new housing construction. Home to Silicon Valley, the San Francisco Bay Area is the most productive and most expensive metropolitan region in the country, and yet new housing construction has been very slow, especially in contrast to less-productive large cities like Houston, Texas. The evidence suggests that this slow-growth environment results from locally determined regulatory constraints. Existing residents justify these constraints by appealing to the costs of new development, including increased vehicle traffic and other types of congestion, and claim that they see few, if any, of the benefits from new development. However, the effects of local regulation extend beyond the local regulating authorities: regions with highly regulated municipalities experience less-elastic housing supply. (2, footnotes omitted)

The bottom line, as far as I am concerned, is that localities that are attempting to deal with their affordable housing problems have to directly address how they go about their zoning. If the zoning does not support housing construction, then no amount of affordable housing incentives will address the demand for housing in high growth places like NYC and San Francisco.

Micro-Units for Millennials

murphy bed

Construction Dive quoted me in An Emerging Megatrend? Developers Experiment with Microunits to Target Millennial Market. It opens,

As U.S. home prices and rents continue to soar, some developers are taking aim at a new target market — those willing to sacrifice square footage to be able to live near their work and area nightlife at a more budget-friendly price.

These microhousing units, also known as microapartments and microcondos, have most of the amenities of their full-size counterparts but typically range from around 350 square feet to 550 square feet, with some buildings offering up units at a relatively roomy 1,000 square feet. Many also come outfitted with furnishings specifically designed for the unit — folding beds, hidden storage and convertible pieces that do double duty, such as a dining table that also functions as a work desk.

However, the growing concept is seeing mixed results in the U.S. Is microhousing just a passing fad as younger renters look for an affordable stepping stone to a larger space, or does it represent a shift in what some Americans are looking for in a home?

The Draw of Smaller Spaces

Jam-packed cities like Tokyo are prime markets for these tiny units because the cost of land is at a premium, according to David Reiss, professor of law and academic program director at the Center for Urban Entrepreneurship at the Brooklyn Law School. Microunits are particularly appealing to single, young professionals who spend a lot of time working and hanging out with friends rather than entertaining in their own homes, he said.

The primary draw, however, is “location, location, location,” Reiss said. “When young adults are choosing between a small space in the center city or a larger space further afield, there will always be some who opt for the former.”

This hasn’t always been the case, according to architect David Senden, partner at international design firm KTGY. Americans used to put a premium on living space, but there’s been a “shift on the priority list,” and “location and has jumped to the absolute top,” he said. There’s also a growing desire for shorter commuting times.

However, whether the overall demand for microhousing is on the uptick is debatable. Some developers see microunits as the solution that will provide millennials with the opportunity to live in vibrant urban settings, as well as offer baby boomers or those looking to downsize a minimalist living space without having to give up the modern conveniences they’ve come to expect.

When Microhousing Is a Viable Concept

Reiss said population density  and high prices need to be components of any successful micro project . When prices, in both rent and homes, “outpace middle-class income,” as they have done in cities like San Francisco and New York City, then some people will give up square footage in order to stay close to their friends or jobs. “The microunit might present a very attractive trade-off of space and cost for that demographic,” he said. Reiss added that New York City is even amending its zoning laws to allow for more micro developments.

Thursday’s Advocacy & Think Tank Round-Up

  • Community Builders, an initiative of the Sonoran Institute has released Place Value: How Communities Attract, Grow and Keep Jobs and Talent in the Rocky Mountain West recommends walkability and quality of life conscious development of communities .
  • According to the National Association of Realtor’s analysis of the New Housing Starts data homebuilders are increasingly developing high density housing with “walkability” suburban and single family housing has been deemphasized.
  • The Urban Institute released its Housing Finance at a Glance monthly chartbook, which Prof. Reiss finds to be a very helpful holistic view of the mortgage industry.
  • The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)’s Office of Policy Development and Research has developed the Creating Connected Communities: A Guidebook for Improving Transportation Connections for Low and Moderate Income Households in Small and Midsize Cities – the guidebook contains recommendations geared toward cities with 250,000 or fewer residents which among other things suggest a refocus of financial resources on critical needs and improvement of the alignment between housing and transportation investments.
  • Zillow has announced that home prices are rising faster than incomes for most Millenials (no surprise there).  This report also finds that first time home buyers rent for longer before buying typically more expensive homes which are paid for with a larger share of income.

Thursday’s Advocacy & Think Tank Round-Up