What $4 Billion Does for Homeowners

Enterprise released a Policy Focus on What the JPMorgan Chase Settlement Means for Consumers: An Analysis of the $4 Billion in Consumer Relief Obligations. It opens,

On November 19, 2013, JPMorgan Chase reached a record-setting settlement deal with the federal government’s Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS) Working Group for $13 billion, which included $4 billion in consumer relief for struggling homeowners and hard-hit communities.

This brief examines how the $4 billion obligation will likely flow to consumers over the next four years. According to the settlement terms, eligible activities for which JPMorgan Chase will receive credit broadly include: loan modifications; rate reduction and refinancing; low- to moderate-income/disaster area lending; and anti-blight work. (1)

Enterprise projects that JPMorgan’s $4 Billion obligation will

translate into $4.65 billion in relief for existing homeowners, with an additional $15 million going to homebuyers, and as much as $380 million in cash and REO properties allocated to reducing foreclosure-related blight. Our analysis projects that over 26,500 borrowers will receive a total of $2.6 billion in principal forgiveness, which translates into $1.5 billion in credit toward the bank’s obligation. Forbearance will be extended on 17,000 loans, and slightly more than 7,000 second liens will be fully or partially forgiven. In addition to forgiveness or forbearance, we anticipate the interest rates on approximately 26,500 loans will be reduced, resulting in a real borrower savings of $1.4 billion. (1)

We’re talking about some pretty big numbers here, so it might be useful to break them down on a per borrower basis.

  • 26,500 loans will receive interest rate reductions resulting in $1.4 billion in consumer benefit, or $52,830 per loan.
  • 26,500 borrowers will receive $2.6 billion in principal forgiveness, or $98,113 per homeowner.

The report, unfortunately, does not parse these big numbers out so well. For instance, do they reflect savings over the expected life of the loans or over the remaining term? We also do not know whether these changes, large as they are, will leave sustainable loans in their place. So, this is a report provides a useful starting point, but some very big questions about the settlement still remain to be answered.

Shadowed by the Shadow Inventory

My former colleague at Seton Hall, Linda Fisher, has posted Shadowed by the Shadow Inventory:  A Newark, New Jersey Case Study of Stalled Foreclosures & Their Consequences on SSRN. The paper presents the findings of a small, but interesting empirical study.  The study “tests the extent to which bank stalling has contributed to foreclosure delays and property vacancies in” one neighborhood in  Newark, New Jersey. (6) Fisher states that this “is the first study to trace the disposition of each property in the sample through both public and private sources, allowing highly accurate conclusions to be drawn.” (6)

Fisher reaches “a similar conclusion to the previous studies with respect to stalling: without legal excuse or ongoing workout efforts, banks frequently cease prosecuting foreclosures.” (7) Fisher also finds that the stalled foreclosures in her study “do not strongly correlate with property vacancies.”(7)  Fisher claims that her findings “are generalizable to similar urban areas in judicial foreclosure states,” but I would like to have seen more support for that claim in the paper. (45)

As a side note, I found her description of foreclosure in New Jersey interesting:

The New Jersey foreclosure system provides a representative example of a judicial foreclosure regime, albeit one with heightened procedural protections for borrowers enacted into the state’s Fair Foreclosure Act. For instance, lenders must file a notice of intention to foreclose containing information about, inter  alia, the lender, servicer and amount required to cure, before filing a foreclosure complaint in court. Once borrowers are served with process, they may file a contesting answer and litigate the matter, as with any civil case. Because ninety-­four percent of New Jersey foreclosures in a typical year are not contested, the process is largely administrative and handled through a statewide Office of Foreclosure. Court personnel scrutinize bank evidence in support of default judgments. Borrowers may file late answers, and are responsible only for curing arrears and paying foreclosure fees up until the time of judgment. (14-15, emphasis added, citations omitted)

Because this blog has as one of its main focuses downstream litigation judicial opinions, it is important to remember how few cases actually reach a court room, let alone result in a written opinion by a judge.