REFinBlog

Editor: David Reiss
Cornell Law School

October 30, 2015

Friday’s Government Reports

By Serenna McCloud

  • The U.S. Census Bureau/HUD has released the New Residential Construction Statistics which show new building permits down slightly since August but 4.5% higher than Sept. 2014. Housing completions are up both month over month and year to year.
  • The New York Federal Reserve has released a paper: The Rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and a related blog post: Evaluating the Rescue of  Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in which the authors evaluate the now seven years and running government conservatorship which injected $187.5 billion into the two entities.  The authors conclude that the short term intervention was necessary “because of the central role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the U.S. mortgage market, and the GSEs’ interconnections with the rest of the global financial system.”  They go on to argue that the conservatorship was meant to be a temporary “time out” and characterize the lack of mortgage finance reform a “striking failure” and cite broad consensus that the GSEs should be replaced with a private system.

October 30, 2015 | Permalink | No Comments

Thursday’s Advocacy & Think Tank Round-Up

By Serenna McCloud

Hello readers,

Due to  a technical issue Thursday’s Round-up was delayed until today.

  • The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has released its Pending Home Sales Index for September.  According to NAR pending home sales are down 2.3% from August, this is the second straight month in which the statistic is down.  Year over year it is still up for the 13th straight month.
  • NYU’s Furman Center has released a policy paper series Multifamily Housing Resilience which points out the continued vulnerability of multifamily housing in NYC and Miami  – both cities have a large percentage of multifamily dwellings in floodplains.  One consequence, detailed in The Price of Resilience, is that affordable housing is caught between a rock (unaffordable flood insurance) and a hard place (unaffordable flood prevention upgrades).

October 30, 2015 | Permalink | No Comments

October 29, 2015

Frannie v. Private-Label Smackdown

By David Reiss

Eric Armstrong

S&P posted a report, Historical Data Show That Agency Mortgage Loans Are Likely to Perform Significantly Better Than Comparable Non-Agency Loans. The overview notes,

  • We examined the default frequencies of both agency and non-­agency mortgage loans originated from 1999­-2008.
  • As expected, default rates for both agencies and non-­agencies were higher for crisis-­era vintages relative to pre­-crisis vintages.
  • The loan characteristics that were the most significant predictors of default were FICO scores, debt­-to­-income (DTI) ratios, and loan­-to­-value (LTV) ratios.
  • Agency loans performed substantially better than non­agency loans for all vintages examined. The default rate of agency loans was approximately 30%-­65% that for comparable non-­agency loans, whether analyzed via stratification or through a logistic regression framework. (1)

This is not so surprising, but it is interesting to see the relative performance of Frannie (Fannie & Freddie) and Private-Label loans quantified and it is worth thinking through the implications of this disparity.

S&P was able to do this analysis because Fannie and Freddie released their “loan-level, historical performance data” to the public in order to both increase transparency and to encourage private capital to return to the secondary mortgage market. (1) Given that the two companies have transferred significant credit risk to third parties in the last few years, this is a useful exercise for potential investors, regulators and policymakers.

It is unclear to me that this historical data gives us much insight into future performance of either Frannie or Private-Label securities because so much has changed since the 2000s. Dodd-Frank enacted the Qualified Mortgage, Ability-to-Repay and Qualified Mortgage regimes for the primary and secondary mortgage market and they have fundamentally changed the nature of Private-Label securities. And the fact that Fannie and Freddie are now in conservatorship has changed how they do business in very significant ways just as much. So, yes, old Frannie mortgages are likely to perform better, but what about new ones?

October 29, 2015 | Permalink | No Comments

October 28, 2015

California Dreamin’ of Affordable Housing

By David Reiss

Architecturist

Just A Dream for Many

Yesterday, I blogged about the affordable housing crisis in New York City. Today, I look at a report from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, How Housing Vouchers Can Help Address California’s Rental Crisis. It opens,

California’s severe shortage of affordable housing has hit low-income renters particularly hard. Nearly 1.6 million low-income California renter households paid more than half of their income for housing in 2013, and this number has risen 28 percent since 2007. While the shortage is most severe on California’s coast, many families throughout California struggle to pay the rent. A multifaceted approach with roles for local, state, and federal governments is needed to address the severe affordable housing shortage, but the federal Housing Choice Voucher program can play an outsized role.

California’s high housing costs stretch struggling families’ budgets, deepening poverty and hardship and exacerbating a host of other problems. For example, 23 percent of Californians are poor, according to Census measures that take housing costs into account, well above the poverty rate of 16 percent under the official poverty measure. California has 14 percent of the nation’s renter households but nearly 30 percent of the overcrowded renters. And California has one-fifth of the nation’s homeless people, more than any other state. A large body of research shows that poverty, overcrowding, housing instability, and homelessness can impair children’s health and development and undermine their chances of success in school and later in the workforce.

Housing vouchers help some 300,000 low-income California families afford the rent, more than all other state and federal rental assistance programs combined. Vouchers reduce poverty, homelessness, and housing instability. They can also help low-income families — particularly African American and Hispanic families — raise their children in safer, lower-poverty communities and avoid neighborhoods of concentrated poverty. Moreover, so-called “project-based” vouchers can help finance the construction of affordable rental housing in areas with severe shortages.

Yet the number of vouchers in use has fallen in recent years, even as California’s housing affordability problems have worsened. Due to across-the-board federal budget cuts enacted in 2013 (called sequestration), 14,620 fewer California families used vouchers in December 2014 than in December 2012. By restoring funding for these vouchers, Congress can enable thousands more California families to afford safe, stable housing. (1, reference omitted)

Really, the analysis here is not California-specific. The authors are arguing that low-income families benefit greatly from rental subsidies and that Congress should restore funding for housing vouchers because they provide targeted, effective assistance to their users. While California has a high concentration of voucher users, all low-income renter households would benefit from an increase in the number of housing vouchers. No argument there.

I am disappointed that the report does not address an issue that I highlighted yesterday — attractive places like NYC and California continue to draw a range of people from global elites to low-income strivers. Policymakers cannot think of the affordable housing problems in such places as one that can be “fixed.” Rather, it must be seen as, to a large extent, a symptom of success.

So long as more and more people want to live in such places, housing costs will pose a challenge. Housing costs can be mitigated to some extent in hot destinations, but they are hard to solve. And if they are to be solved, those destinations must be willing to increase density to build enough units to house all the people who want to live there.

October 28, 2015 | Permalink | No Comments

Wednesday’s Academic Roundup

By Shea Cunningham

October 28, 2015 | Permalink | No Comments

October 27, 2015

Primer on NYC Affordability Crisis

By David Reiss

"2014 July NYC's 432 Park Avenue" by The Hornet

Enterprise has released a report, 2015 New York City Housing Security Profile and Affordability Housing Gap Analysis. Its conclusions are not shocking, but they are sobering:

  • Of 2 million renter households in New York City, nearly 640,000 are low-income and severely cost-burdened.
  • There is not a single neighborhood in NYC that provides enough affordable housing to match the number of very low-income households in that community.
  • Both the regulated and unregulated rental housing markets of NYC are not meeting the affordable housing needs of low-income renters.
  • Even though the market added rent stabilized units between 2011 and 2014, the stock affordable to lower income families declined.
  • Competition exacerbates the gap between the number affordable units and the number of low-income renters, forcing many to pay beyond their means. (33)

As with many such studies, it offers a cogent analysis of the problem but offers very little by way of possible solutions. It hints at one such solution when it notes that

By any measure, the demand for affordable housing in New York City outstrips supply – even on the rent regulated market. Low-income households are squeezed even further by competition from higher income households for the cheapest units. The acute shortage forces the majority of lower income households in housing that costs beyond their means. (27)

Increasing the supply of housing will, if everything else is equal, reduce the cost of housing. The de Blasio Administration is certainly on board with an approach to increase density in NYC but many other elected officials are not — or at least resist it when it comes to their own backyards.  While more housing is not a sufficient solution to the affordability problem in NYC, it is certainly a necessary component of a solution.

The report also does not deal with the big elephant in the affordable housing policy room — the social demographics of NYC are undergoing a secular shift as the city gets hotter and hotter for global elites. It is unclear how much government can affect that trend, particularly at the local level.

October 27, 2015 | Permalink | No Comments

Tuesday’s Regulatory & Legislative Round-Up

By Serenna McCloud

  • The Department of Housing and Urban Development has proposed a new rule, Quid Pro Quo and Hostile Environment Harassment and Liability for Discriminatory Housing Practices Under the Fair Housing Act.  HUD seeks to clarify the standards for use in investigating and adjudicating accusations of harassment on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, sex, familial status or disability under the Fair Housing Act. The proposed standards would specify how HUD would evaluate complaints of quid pro quo (“this for that”) harassment and hostile environment harassment and provide for uniform treatment of Fair Housing Act claims raising such allegations in the federal courts. According to the rule “quid pro quo” and “hostile environment harassment,” as prohibited under the Fair Housing Act, it also adds illustrations of discriminatory housing practices that constitute such harassment.
  • The U.S. Treasury’s Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFI) Fund has announced the availability of  $5 billion for the 2015 allocation round for New Market Tax Credits (NMTC) Program (applications are available until 12/16/2015). The NMTC program is used to offer 7 year tax credits to attract private investment in the development of low income housing and is widely considered to be a very effective tool for the development of affordable housing.

October 27, 2015 | Permalink | No Comments