REFinBlog

Editor: David Reiss
Cornell Law School

June 29, 2015

Monday’s Adjudication Roundup

By Shea Cunningham

June 29, 2015 | Permalink | No Comments

June 26, 2015

Homeowners Heading to Pottersville?

By David Reiss

Lionel_Barrymore_as_Mr._Potter

Mr. Potter from It’s A Wonderful Life

The Urban Institute has issued a report, Headship and Homeownership: What Does The Future Hold? The report opens,

Homeownership rates averaged around 64 percent until about 1990, when they began to climb dramatically, reaching 67.3 percent in 2006. The housing crisis that began in 2007 and the ensuing recession, from which the US economy is recovering slowly, resulted in a fall in the homeownership rate to 63.6 percent, according to the latest ACS numbers. Such a trajectory has generated important questions about the future of homeownership at all ages. The issues with young adults seem particularly acute. Will young adults want to own houses? Even if they do, will they be able to afford homeownership? The answers to these questions are still unclear, especially because millennials are not just slower to start their own households and purchase homes: they also are more likely to live in their parents’ homes than any generation in recent history. The rapidly changing racial and ethnic composition of the population also has profound implications for household formation and homeownership.

In this report, we dive deeply into the pace of household formation and homeownership attainment—nationally and by age groups and race/ethnicity over the past quarter-century—and project future trends. Considering the great uncertainty about household formation and homeownership, single-point forecasts of homeownership rates and housing demand could seriously mislead policymakers and obscure the potential implications of their decisions. Instead, we offer plausible competing scenarios for household formation and homeownership that generate a range of future national housing demand projections. (1)

I am not in a position to evaluate how well the report projects future trends, but some of its conclusions are worth considering together:

  • the homeownership rate will decline from 65.1 percent in 2010 to 61.3 percent in 2030; (46)
  • the rapid growth of the renter population will create significant demand for new rental housing construction and encourage shifting of owner-occupied dwellings to rentals; (47)
  • very tight credit availability standards will retard homeownership attainment and may exacerbate the growing shortage in rental housing; (48) and
  • the erosion of black homeownership needs to be addressed by more than mortgage policy. (48)

Taken together, these conclusions all point to a backsliding in the housing market: the American Dream disappearing for millions of Americans, particularly African Americans, who will end up living in overcrowded Pottersvilles straight out of It’s A Wonderful Life. Just like George Bailey, we have choices to make before that nightmare becomes a reality. But before we decide anything too hastily, we should consider the fundamental goals of housing policy.

I have argued that a “fundamental goal of housing policy is to assist Americans to live in a safe, well-maintained and affordable housing unit.” I am less convinced than most housing scholars that homeownership, given the state of today’s economy, is such a sure road to stable housing and financial well-being. So, instead of blindly focusing on increasing the homeownership rate, I would focus on increasing opportunities for sustainable homeownership. I believe the report’s authors would agree with this, but I think that housing scholars in general need to focus on policies that keep households in their housing, given how much income instability they now face.

June 26, 2015 | Permalink | No Comments

Friday’s Government Reports

By Serenna McCloud

  • Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (“CFPB”) announces access to the consumer complaint database where users can read consumer narratives and download complaint data as desired.  The CFPB describes it as an enhanced public-facing consumer complaint database, which includes for the first time over 7,700 consumer accounts of problems they are facing with financial services providers – including mortgages, bank accounts, credit cards, debt collection, etc.
  • U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s (HUD) Semi-Annual Report to Congress (SAR) for the period ending March 31, 2015 – In which it details how: $1.2 billion in funds put to better use; more than $1.7 billion in questioned costs; and more than $457 million in collections through 38 audit reports were reported. HUD also reported more than $38 million in recoveries.
  • HUD’s Policy Development and Research Division (PD&R) publishes reports every quarter profiling 12-15 housing markets, the latest batch includes, amoung others: Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colorado; Savannah, Georgia; and Spokane, Washington.

 

June 26, 2015 | Permalink | No Comments

June 25, 2015

SCOTUS Upholds Disparate Impact

By David Reiss

Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs

The United States Supreme Court held today that disparate-impact claims are cognizable under the Fair Housing Act in Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs et al. v. The Inclusive Communities Project Inc., (No 13-1371). The conventional wisdom had been that the Court was going to hold that the Fair Housing Act “does not create disparate-impact liability”  (in the words of Justice Alito’s dissent at page 2).

I found it striking the extent to which Justice Kennedy’s opinion, which was joined by Justices Ginsburg, Breyer, Sotomayor and Kagan, relied on the history of residential segregation in the United States. For those of us steeped in the history of housing in America, this history is pretty much standard, but it takes on a lot of meaning when it is restated in a Supreme Court opinion. The opinion reads,

De jure residential segregation by race was declared unconstitutional almost a century ago, but its vestiges remain today, intertwined with the country’s economic and social life. Some segregated housing patterns can be traced to conditions that arose in the mid-20th century. Rapid urbanization, concomitant with the rise of suburban developments accessible by car, led many white families to leave the inner cities. This often left minority families concentrated in the center of the Nation’s cities. During this time, various practices were followed, sometimes with governmental support, to encourage and maintain the separation of the races: Racially restrictive covenants prevented the conveyance of property to minorities; steering by real-estate agents led potential buyers to consider homes in racially homogenous areas; and discriminatory lending practices, often referred to as redlining, precluded minority families from purchasing homes in affluent areas. By the 1960’s, these policies, practices, and prejudices had created many predominantly black inner cities surrounded by mostly white suburbs.

The mid-1960’s was a period of considerable social unrest; and, in response, President Lyndon Johnson established the National Advisory Commission on Civil Disorders, commonly known as the Kerner Commission. After extensive factfinding the Commission identified residential segregation and unequal housing and economic conditions in the inner cities as significant, underlying causes of the social unrest. The Commission found that “[n]early two-thirds of all nonwhite families living in the central cities today live in neighborhoods marked by substandard housing and general urban blight.” The Commission further found that both open and covert racial discrimination prevented black families from obtaining better housing and moving to integrated communities. The Commission concluded that “[o]ur Nation is moving toward two societies, one black, one white— separate and unequal.” To reverse “[t]his deepening racial division,” it recommended enactment of “a comprehensive and enforceable open-occupancy law making it an offense to discriminate in the sale or rental of any housing . . . on the basis of race, creed, color, or national origin.”

In April 1968, Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., was assassinated in Memphis, Tennessee, and the Nation faced a new urgency to resolve the social unrest in the inner cities. Congress responded by adopting the Kerner Commission’s recommendation and passing the Fair Housing Act. (5-6, citations omitted)

This straightforward acknowledgment of the history of racial discrimination in America may be the most powerful part of this opinion.

June 25, 2015 | Permalink | No Comments

Thursday’s Advocacy & Think Tank Round-Up

By Serenna McCloud

  • Capital New York reports another study which finds that non-whites are at a disadvantage when it comes to securing a home loan, this is more pronounced in the conventional loan market (less so for FHA loans). Includes an interactive chart which breaks down the stats by borough.
  • Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies’ Annual State of the Nation’s Housing 2015 reveals historic lows in homeownership rates, and a corresponding “rental boom,” a shortage in supply for single family dwellings, and an increasingly severe rental affordability problem.
  • National Association of Realtors’ release of Existing Home Sales statistics for May reveal a strong rebound over April, in fact sales are strongest they have been in 6 years, with first time homebuyers making up the biggest portion of buyers.
  • NYU Furman Center’s new working paper – Utility Allowances in Federally Subsidized Multifamily Housing – advocates four policy changes which would help HUD increase energy efficiency in the properties it subsidizes.  These include, 1. Incentivizing owners to switch to individually metered units; 2. Incentivizing owners to make energy saving upgrades; 3. Provision of utility allowances that are affordable but make recipients bear the cost of consumption; 4. Provide information about relative utility costs to increase tenant purchasing power.

June 25, 2015 | Permalink | No Comments

June 24, 2015

High Risk at Fannie and Freddie

By David Reiss

FHFA Director Watt

The Federal Housing Finance Agency released its 2014 Report to Congress. It summarizes many interim reports and press releases that were released over the previous year, many of which have been covered by REFinBlog as they came out. I was struck, however, by the passages about the operational risk that Fannie and Freddie face.  I have been concerned with operational risk at Fannie and Freddie for some time, as the two enterprises have languished in conservatorship limbo for far too long.

The Report of the Annual Examination of Fannie Mae states that

The level of operational risk remains high and largely reflects the risk posed by execution of Fannie Mae’s strategic plan to replace its existing information technology infrastructure. Management has made significant progress in stabilizing the current information technology environment, with improvements in the change management process and reductions in production outages. Further, progress was made in establishing an out-of-region data center that is a critical component for supporting information systems and providing for business continuity in the event of a disaster. As Fannie Mae implements this plan, however, the level of operational risk will remain elevated. Risks associated with the execution, deployment, and integration with the CSP [Common Securitization Platform] and the move to a Single Security, while addressing ongoing IT infrastructure issues, will also introduce a significant level of inherent operational risk to the organization. Effective project management will be critical to mitigate the operational risk arising from these efforts.(14, emphasis added)

The Report of the Annual Examination of Freddie Mac indicates that Freddie faces somewhat different operational risks:

Operational risk, including risks associated with information technology systems, remains a concern primarily because of resource requirements and operational complexities of major strategic initiatives (including integration with the CSP), developing information security and privacy protection capabilities, and heightened risk during the transition to the new risk management structure.

Information security is one of the primary operational risks Freddie Mac faces given the proliferation of cyber crimes and the high probability of new cyber attacks targeted at large organizations. Freddie Mac’s operational framework is highly complex. Information security within the Enterprise is more important than ever given the pervasiveness of cyber-related threats. In addition to external threats, Freddie Mac faces other challenges that may continue to elevate operational risk and increase the likelihood of significant operational incidents and losses. (17, emphasis added)

While neither of these passages is terrifying — as in, here-is-the-next-trigger-for-a-bailout terrifying — they do make me pause and ask whether the GSEs in their current form are up to the challenge of handling this period of “heightened risk.”

Those in Congress who are impeding GSE reform are on notice that Fannie and Freddie face high levels of operational risk. If the next crisis results from that risk, it is on them.

June 24, 2015 | Permalink | No Comments