October 26, 2015
What’s Pushing Down The Homeownership Rate?
S&P has posted a report, What’s Pushing Down The U.S. Homeownership Rate? It opens,
Seven years after the Great Recession began, a number of key economic factors today have reverted from their short-term extremes. Home prices are rebounding, unemployment is declining, and optimism is rising among economists if not among financial markets that the U.S. economy may finally be strong enough to withstand a rate hike from the Federal Reserve. All these trends point to reversals from the recession’s dismal conditions. Even so, one telling trend for the nation’s economy hasn’t yet reverted to its historic norm: the homeownership rate. The rising proportion of renters to owner occupants that followed the housing market turmoil has yet to wane. Compound this with tougher mortgage qualifying requirements over recent years, and it’s not surprising that the homeownership rate, which measures the percentage of housing units that the owner occupies, dropped to a 50 year low of 63.4% in first quarter 2015. However, the further decreases in unemployment and increases in hourly wages that our economists forecast for the next two years may set the stage for an eventual comeback, if only a modest one. (1)
S&P concludes that many have chosen not to become homeowners because of diminished “mortgage availability and income growth.” (8) Like many others, S&P assumes inthat the homeownership rate is unnaturally depressed, having fallen so far below its pre-bubble high of 69.2%. While the current rate is low, S&P does not provide any theory of a “natural” rate of homeownership (cf. natural rate of unemployment). Clearly, the natural rate in today’s economy s higher than something in the 40-50 percent range that existed before the federal government became so involved in housing finance. And clearly, it is lower than 100% — not everyone should be or wants to be a homeowner. But merely asserting that it is lower than its high is an insufficient basis for identifying the appropriate level today.
I think that the focus should remain on income growth and income inequality. If we address those issues, the homeownership rate should find its own equilibrium. If we push people into homeownership without ensuring that they have stable incomes, we are setting them up for a fall.
October 26, 2015 | Permalink | No Comments
Friday’s Government Reports Roundup
- The National Housing Conference released its 2015 “Paycheck to Paycheck” report, which reports how the gap between housing and wages has increased.
- The National Bureau of Economic Research released a working paper, Housing Booms and Busts, Labor Market Opportunities, and College Attendance, which reports a correlation between the state of the housing market and college attendance.
- CoreLogic released its August 2015 National Foreclosure Report, showing that, since August 2014, there has been a decrease in the amount of foreclosures.
- Center on Budget and Policy Priorities released “How Housing Vouchers Can Help California’s Rental Crisis”.
October 23, 2015 | Permalink | No Comments
October 22, 2015
The Low Cost of Homeownership
TheStreet.com quoted me in Why the Extra Costs of Owning a Home Are Lower Than Consumer Expectations. It reads, in part,
First-time homebuyers are often apprehensive about the extra costs of owning a house, fearful that routine maintenance and repairs will add up quickly, exceeding their original budget.
But their estimates about replacing air filters, mowing the lawn and conducting minor repairs are often much higher than average costs. Consumers have trouble estimating the actual amount and said it would cost $15,070 for home maintenance repairs each year, according to a recent survey by NeighborWorks America, a Washington, D.C-based organization focused on affordable housing.
The actual amount is more likely to be in the range of 1% to 3% of a home’s value or $2,000 to $6,000 nationwide, said Douglas Robinson, a spokesman for NeighborWorks America. Even some current homeowners’ estimates were above the average amount and predicted repairs to cost $12,360. The perception among current renters was even worse with a prediction of $20,503.
“The important thing to remember about buying a home is that there are costs after the purchase that go beyond the monthly mortgage,” he said. “By setting up a savings plan and budget for these costs – items such as landscaping, air conditioning and heating system maintenance – a homeowner will be better equipped to take on the expenses without having to use a credit card or worse, a high-cost emergency loan.”
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Home Emergencies
While they might appear to be rare, homeowners annually should prepare themselves to handle at least one unexpected major emergency such as replacing the boiler or roof in the aftermath of a major storm or flooding in the basement where water needs to be pumped out immediately to protect the foundation, said David Reiss, a law professor at Brooklyn Law School. Establishing an emergency fund would help protect a homeowner when these problems arise so consumers are not forced to turn to more expensive options of debt such as credit cards.
“If a homeowner has an emergency fund, he or she will feel like a genius when it comes time to use it,” he said. “The next step, of course, is to start saving up immediately for the next problem because as most homeowners know – there will be a next problem.”
Some homeowners might find that chronic problems such as the leaky roof are worse than the “acute ones such as the boiler giving out in the winter,” Reiss said.
“This is because we will do whatever it takes to turn the heat back on,” he said. “But we learn to live with the occasional leak and end up feeling like we can ignore it. However, water damage is bad for a house and always gets worse.”
October 22, 2015 | Permalink | No Comments
Thursday’s Advocacy & Think Tank Round-Up
- The Cornerstone Partnership has developed the Inclusionary Calculator, which “allows users to model a real or hypothetical housing development and then add affordable housing requirements in combination with different development incentives.” The Antlantic Citilab has argued that this tool shows that affordable housing is not only feasible but also profitable, almost anywhere. This fact, they argue, makes the decision on whether or not to develop real estate in an inclusionary fashion a moral choice and not an economic one.
- Congratulations to the Empire Community Loan Fund, one of the largest not-for-profit loan funds and Community Development Financial Institution (CDFI), which has been selected for inclusion in the Impact Assets 50 (IA50). The IA 50 is an annual showcase of Impact Investment Fund Managers. The Empire Community Loan Fund issues debt instruments to support affordable housing development, among other things.
- Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies’ Remodeling Futures Program has released it’s Lead Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) for the Third Quarter of 2015 in which it predicts annual spending growth for home improvements will accelerate from 2.4% last quarter to 6.8% in the second quarter of 2016. The next LIRA release date is January 21, 2016.
October 22, 2015 | Permalink | No Comments



