September 11, 2015
Friday’s Government Reports Roundup
- The FHFA releases it 2015-2017 Housing Goals for Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac.
- The US Department of Agriculture released its 20th Annual Food Security Report. The reports shows that 1 in 7 people live in food insecure households, but there has been a slight decline over the past few years.
September 11, 2015 | Permalink | No Comments
September 10, 2015
Buying in a Boom
TheStreet.com quoted me in How Consumers Can Buy Houses in a Booming Market. The story reads, in part,
Home prices have also risen compared to last year as the number of homes sold rose in all parts of the country except for the Midwest, according to a recent report from PNC, the Pittsburgh-based financial institution. The median sale price for an existing single-family home was $288,300 in July, up from $279,700 in June.
“The housing market continues to gradually recover from the Great Recession, supporting economic growth,” Stuart Hoffman, chief economist for PNC. “Stronger demand and good affordability are supporting home sales and pushing up house prices.”
Many economists are predicting that home prices will continue to increase this year. PNC said prices will rise by 3.7% in 2015 and 2.7% in 2016, down from 6.6% in 2014.
“This year we [saw] inventory continue to grow in August and while overall demand is strong, the trend in median days on market is suggesting that the market is finding more of a balance,” said Jonathan Smoke, chief economist of Realtor.com, the San Jose, Calif. real estate service company. “This bodes well for would-be buyers who have been discouraged by the inability to find a home to buy this spring and summer.”
Consumers who are still eager to purchase a home still have many opportunities left to negotiate a deal within their price range. While it is tougher to buy a house in a tight market, here are some tips to give homebuyers a head start.
Looking for a house in the fall is generally a better bet. Even though there are fewer homes on the market right now, there are “definitely less buyers, so there’s less competition,” said Mark Lesses, a broker with Coldwell Banker in Lexington, Mass.
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Renters Who Wait Can Benefit
Buying a house during a tight market could prove to be an expensive endeavor. Staying out of the market might be a good option, because housing prices could level off and decline, said David Reiss, a law professor at Brooklyn Law School in N.Y.
“Sometimes it is cheaper to rent,” he said. “Don’t try to time the real estate market. Look at your needs and what you could afford, and consider if it is a good choice.”
September 10, 2015 | Permalink | No Comments
Thursday’s Advocacy & Think Tank Round-Up
- Enterprise Community Partners and other leaders of the #Capshurtcommunities campaign have arranged a National Call in days on September 15 and 16, 2015 to “to educate Members of Congress on just how devastating these cuts are to low-income children, families, seniors, and veterans in our communities.” The #Capshurtcommunities campaign’s goals are to “Realign the federal budget to preserve and expand access to affordable rental housing for low income households while continuing support for homeownership opportunities for low and moderate income families.” According to the campaign’s leaders the low spending caps which Congress has placed on Federal housing programs hamper the U.S.’s ability to meet its diversity, educational and economic mobility potentials.
September 10, 2015 | Permalink | No Comments
September 9, 2015
Better to Be a Banker or a Non-Banker?
The Community Home Lenders Association (CHLA) has prepared an interesting chart, Comparison of Consumer and Financial Regulation of Non-bank Mortgage Lenders vs. Banks. The CHLA is a trade association that represents non-bank lenders, so the chart has to be read in that context. The side-by side-chart compares the regulation of non-banks to banks under a variety of statutes and regulations. By way of example, the chart leads off with the following (click on the chart to see it better):
The chart emphasizes all the ways that non-banks are regulated where banks are exempt as well as all of the ways that they are regulated in the identical manner. Given that this is an advocacy document, it only mentions in passing the ways that banks are governed by various little things like “generic bank capital standards” and safety and soundness regulators. That being said, it is still good to look through the chart to see how non-bank regulation has been increasing since the passage of Dodd-Frank.
September 9, 2015 | Permalink | No Comments
Wednesday’s Academic Roundup
- The Effect of Negative Equity on Mortgage Default: Evidence from HAMP PRA, Therese C. Scharlemann & Stephen H. Shore, Office of Financial Research Working Paper No. 15-06.
- Housing Tax Reform and Foreclosure Rates, Richard Dusansky & Firas Zebian, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol. 51, No. 3, 2015.
- Price Jump Risk in the US Housing Market, Robert I. Webb, Jian Yang & Jin Zhang, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2015 Forthcoming.
- Statutory Right of Redemption and the Selling Price of Foreclosed Houses, Bruce L. Gordon & Daniel T. Winkler, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol. 51, No. 3, 2015.
- Revealing the Rapist Next Door: Property Impacts of the Sex Offender Registry, Susan Yeh, International Review of Law and Economics, Forthcoming; George Mason Legal Studies Research Paper No. LS 15-06; George Mason Law & Economics Research Paper No. 15-24.
- An Investigation into Sentiment-Induced Institutional Trading Behavior and Asset Pricing in the REIT Market, Prashant Das, Julia Freybote & Gianluca Marcato, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol. 51, No. 2, 2015.
- Leveraged Bubbles, Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP10781.
September 9, 2015 | Permalink | No Comments
September 8, 2015
Home Purchase Sentiment Index
Home Sweet Home takes on a whole new meaning with Fannie Mae’s new Home Purchase Sentiment Index. The index
distills results from its consumer-focused National Housing Survey™ (NHS) into a single, monthly, predictive indicator. Reflecting more than four years of data, the HPSI is designed to provide distinct signals about the direction of the housing market, helping industry participants to make better informed business decisions.
The press release continues,
Unlike existing general indices of consumer economic sentiment, the HPSI is devoted entirely to housing. The index is constructed from answers to six key NHS questions that solicit Americans’ evaluations of housing market conditions and address topics related to their home purchase decisions. These questions ask consumers whether they think it is a good or bad time to buy or to sell a house, the direction they expect home prices and mortgage interest rates to move, how concerned they are about losing their jobs, and whether their incomes are higher than they were a year earlier.
The six questions incorporated in the Home Purchase Sentiment Index are
- In general, do you think this is a very good time to buy a house, a somewhat good time, a somewhat bad time, or a very bad time to buy a house?
- In general, do you think this is a very good time to sell a house, a somewhat good time, a somewhat bad time, or a very bad time to buy a house?
- During the next 12 months, do you think home prices in general will go up, go down, or stay the same as where they are now?
- During the next 12 months, do you think home mortgage interest rates will go up, go down, or stay the same as where they are now?
- How concerned are you that you will lose your job in the next twelve months? Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not very concerned, or not at all concerned that you will lose your job in the next twelve months?
- How does your current monthly household income compare to what it was twelve months ago?
I am not familiar with the research regarding the validity of consumer economic sentiment indices, but it seems helpful to add a specific home purchase sentiment tool to the toolbox. Future research should determine how this index tracks relevant economic measures and the extent to which it lags or leads those measures. Researchers can find more about the index on the Fannie Mae Consumer Attitude Measures page.
September 8, 2015 | Permalink | No Comments



