January 6, 2017
Friday’s Government Reports Roundup
- A paper titled, Corporate Landlords, Institutional Investors and Displacement: Eviction Rates in Singlefamily Rentals, documents the eviction crisis in the city of Atlanta and adjacent suburbs and places eviction-driven housing instability in the broader context of changing housing markets, examining the relationships between post-foreclosure single-family rentals, large corporate landlords, and eviction rates.
- The paper, Predictive Modeling of Surveyed Property Conditions and Vacancy, draws predictor variables from administrative data that is available in most jurisdictions such as deed recordings, tax assessor’s property characteristics, and foreclosure filing, using logistic regression and machine learning methods, to make reasonably accurate out-of-sample predictions of vacancy and property conditions..
January 6, 2017 | Permalink | No Comments
January 5, 2017
Millennials and Luxury Housing
The Phoenix Business Journal quoted me in Avilla Homes Finds Millennial Niche in Luxury Rental Market (behind a paywall). It opens,
January 5, 2017 | Permalink | No Comments
Thursday’s Advocacy & Think Tank Roundup
- By 2035, one in three U.S. households will be headed by someone 65 years or older. According to a recent report by the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, many of these baby boomers intend to age in place – in other words, stay in their homes or communities.
- A report by the California Department of Housing and Community Development reveals that California’s housing affordability challenges remain daunting and continue to worsen. According to the report, housing production was more than 100,000 new homes short of demand over the last decade, and one-third of the state’s renters spent more than half of their income on housing costs.
- The United States will add 13.6 million households between 2015 and 2025 and another 11.5 million households between 2025 and 2035, according to Updated Household Projections, 2015-2035: Methodology and Results, a new Joint Center working paper. This growth represents an increase from the past decade that is in line with historic rates of growth seen in the 1990s, but still well below the levels experienced in the 1970s
January 5, 2017 | Permalink | No Comments
January 4, 2017
Fair Lending Fade-out
Bloomberg BNA quoted me in In 2017, Look for Pullback on Fair Lending Enforcement (behind a paywall). It opens,
Expect a pullback in fair lending enforcement in 2017, and especially less focus on disparate impact discrimination as the Trump administration takes office.
That’s the assessment of banking attorneys and others weighing the role of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the Department of Housing and Urban Development, and the Justice Department in the uncertain year ahead.
Although a recent court ruling raises questions about CFPB Director Richard Cordray’s tenure, several said they expect the CFPB to be less assertive no matter who heads the agency.
Meanwhile, new leadership at the Justice Department and HUD means that disparate impact claims—allegations of discriminatory effect, without regard to subjective intent—will get less attention than in recent years.
David Reiss, professor of law at Brooklyn Law School in Brooklyn, N.Y., summed up the assessment of several interviewed by Bloomberg BNA on the picture ahead for 2017.
“I would guess that disparate impact won’t be a priority for the Trump administration,” Reiss said.
New Leadership Ahead
In November, Trump said he’ll nominate Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) as attorney general. The president-elect also Dec. 5 named Ben Carson, the former director of pediatric neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins, as his candidate to lead HUD.
Alan S. Kaplinsky, a partner in Philadelphia who leads the consumer financial services practice at Ballard Spahr, said he doesn’t expect Sessions “to be a strong advocate for pushing the legal envelope on fair lending issues.”
And Carson might not use what some have called an “enforcement by litigation” approach to housing policy, according to Joseph Pigg, the American Bankers Association’s senior vice president for mortgage finance.
“Returning to a more normal enforcement regime should be a positive for borrowers and lenders alike,” Pigg told Bloomberg BNA. HUD spokesman Brian Sullivan declined to comment on the fair-lending outlook at HUD.
A Well-Known Unknown
Carson, a well-known physician and education reform advocate, took on an even higher profile by entering the 2016 White House race. But on lending, housing and other matters likely to come before him should he take the helm at HUD, Carson’s record is sparse.
One exception is a July 23, 2015, opinion piece in the Washington Times, where Carson criticized HUD’s Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing rule. Although HUD has a distinct regulation that governs disparate impact claims under the Fair Housing Act, the AFFH rule has a different focus. The regulation, drawn from language in the Fair Housing Act itself, lays out a new process that HUD says “promotes housing choice and fosters inclusive communities free from housing discrimination.”
Carson criticized the AFFH rule, saying it would inject too much government decision-making into local housing policy. The rule, issued in the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling in a major 2015 case on disparate impact claims under the Fair Housing Act, might actually frustrate efforts to develop new housing, he said.
Reiss predicted that Carson will either try to get rid of the AFFH rule, or decide not to enforce it. But he also said Carson’s stance on the regulation probably is somewhat nuanced.
“He’s acknowledged the history of redlining, restrictive covenants, and other problems,” Reiss told Bloomberg BNA. “He doesn’t seem to be denying a history of structural racism in the housing market. He seems to be saying the Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing rule goes too far.”
January 4, 2017 | Permalink | No Comments
Wednesday’s Academic Roundup
- In a paper titled, Theoretical Assessment of Effects on Taxation and Tax System on Property Market, discusses designing and implementing a system of taxation must determine reducing losses to producers and buyers. The intensity of the effects of the tax system on goods market is determined by elasticity of demand and offer. Assessment of the effects generated by a system of taxes on goods market balance is necessary for the partial equilibrium.
- This paper titled, Cultural Superstitutions and Residential Real Estate Prices: Transaction-Level Evidence from the US Housing Market, analyzes the relationship between the presence of 8s and 4s in addresses and single family home transaction prices in Seattle, Washington over the period 1990 to 2015.
January 4, 2017 | Permalink | No Comments
Tuesday’s Regulatory & Legislative Roundup
- Voucher holders’ options for housing may soon broaden if Maryland lawmakers reintroduce and pass the Home Act in the upcoming 2017 legislative session. The state legislation is intended to stop discrimination in real estate based on source of income.
- The D.C. Council gave final approval Tuesday to a plan that will provide private-sector workers some of the nation’s most generous family and medical leave benefits, fighting off a last-minute revolt by the city’s business establishment and Mayor Muriel E. Bowser.
- As part of the Obama Administration’s effort to prevent and end homelessness, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development today awarded a record $1.95 billion in grants to nearly 7,600 homeless assistance programs across throughout the nation, including Puerto Rico, Guam, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
January 3, 2017 | Permalink | No Comments


