Tag Archives: Ability To Repay

Reiss on New Mortgage Regime

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Loans.org quoted me in a story, CFPB Rules Reiterate Current and Future Lending Practices. It reads in part,

David Reiss, professor of law at the Brooklyn Law School, said there could be other long-term effects due to this high DTI ratio since the lending rules will likely remain for several decades.

If the rules remain intact, the high DTI number can still be lowered at a later time. For instance, if few defaults occur when the bar is set at 43 percent, the limit might increase. Conversely, if a large number of defaults occur, the limit will decrease even further.

Reiss hopes that the agencies overseeing the rule will make these changes based on empirical evidence.

“I’m hopeful that regulation in this area will be numbers driven,” he said.

Despite the wording, Bill Parker, senior loan officer at Gencor Mortgage, said that lenders are technically “not required to ensure borrowers can repay their loans.” He said lenders are legally required to make a “good faith effort” for reviewing documents and facts about the borrower and indicating if he or she can repay the debt.

“If they do so, following the directives of the CFPB, then they are protected against suit by said borrower in the future,” Parker said. “If they can’t prove they investigated as required, then they lose the Safe Harbor and have to prove the borrower has not suffered harm because of this.”

The statute of limitations for the CFPB law is three years from the start of loan payments. After that time period, the lender is no longer required to provide evidence of loan compliance.

Even though the amendment could impact the current lending market, experts told loans.org that the CFPB’s standards will make a greater impact on the future of the housing industry.

Reiss believes that the stricter rules will create a sustainable lending market.

Qualified Mortgages and The Community Reinvestment Act

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Regulators issued an Interagency Statement on Supervisory Approach for Qualified and Non-Qualified Mortgage Loans relating to the interaction between the QM rules and Community Reinvestment Act enforcement. This statement complements a similar rule issued in October that addressed the interaction between the QM rules and fair lending enforcement.

The statement acknowledges that lenders are still trying to figure out their way around the new mortgage rules (QM & ATR) that will go into effect in January. The agencies state that “the requirements of the Bureau’s Ability-to-Repay Rule and CRA are compatible. Accordingly, the agencies that conduct CRA evaluations do not anticipate that institutions’ decision to originate only QMs, absent other factors, would adversely affect their CRA evaluations.” (2)

This is important for lenders who intend to only originate plain vanilla QMs. There have been concerns that doing so may result in comparatively few mortgages being CRA-eligible. It seems eminently reasonable that lenders not find themselves between a CRA rock and a QM hard place if they decide to go the QM-only route. That being said, it will be important to continue to monitor whether low- and moderate-income neighborhoods are receiving sufficient amounts of mortgage credit. Given that major lenders are likely to originate non-QM products, this may not be a problem. But we will have to see how the non-QM sector develops next year before we can know for sure.

Non-QM Mortgages Risks and Best Practices

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Moody’s issued a report, Non-QM US RMBS Face Higher Risk of Losses Than QM, but Impact on Transactions Will Vary, that discusses the risk that

US RMBS backed by non-qualified mortgages (those that do not meet a variety of underwriting criteria under new guidelines) will incur higher loss severities on defaulted loans than those backed by qualified mortgages. The key driver of the loss severities will be the higher legal costs and penalties for non-QM securitizations. In non-QM transactions, a defaulted borrower can more easily sue a securitization trust on the grounds that the loan violated the Ability-to-Repay (ATR) rule under the Dodd-Frank Act. . . . The extent of the risks for RMBS will vary, however, depending on the mortgage originators’ practices and documentation, the strength of the transactions’ representations and warranties, and whether the transactions include indemnifications that shield them from borrower lawsuits. (1)

The higher costs for non-QM investors may include longer foreclosure timelines and the resulting wear on the collateral.

If Moody’s analysis is right, however, the Dodd-Frank regime will be working as intended. It should incentivize mortgage originators to strengthen their compliance practices such as those relating to documentation, recordkeeping and third party due diligence. It should also incentivize securitizers to demand strong reps and warranties, put back and indemnification provisions. Sounds like a reasonable trade off to  me.

Happy New Year for Mortgages?

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S&P has posted How Will Mortgage Loan Originators, Borrowers, And RMBS Securitization Trusts Fare Under The New Ability-To-Repay Rules?  This research report finds that

  • The ATR [Ability to Repay] and QM [Qualified Mortgages] standards under TILA [the Truth in Lending Act] will require loan originators to make a reasonable, good faith determination of a borrower’s ability to repay a loan using reliable, third-party written records.
  • If violated, originators and assignees can face liabilities and litigation brought on by borrowers during foreclosure proceedings and even outside of foreclosure proceedings. However, they can be protected from some of these liabilities if a loan meets the QM standards.
  • Depending on the loan’s status, increased loss expectations resulting from additional assignee liability, longer liquidation timelines resulting from borrower defenses in foreclosure proceedings, and additional loan modification experience can affect securitization trust performance.
  • Sensitivity testing using the damages outlined in the rule suggests that additional loss experience will generally be mild for prime jumbo backed securitizations even under conservative assumptions for litigation risks. Trusts backed by loans with higher credit risk, lower balances, and originated by unfamiliar or below-average originators will be at risk of higher losses than prior to the rule.
  • We expect that while the rule will prevent underwriting standards from loosening towards the more risky mortgages originated during the 2006 and 2007 financial crisis, it may also limit credit access to borrowers and make it more difficult to obtain a mortgage loan. (1)

I think that only the last two points are really newsworthy, particularly the last one. Whether the credit markets tighten too much from the new rules is the $64,000 question.

S&P appears to be arguing that the rules will constrain good credit too much. Time will tell if that is the case, as lenders fill the QM sector and the non-QM sector. The non-QM sector provides, for example, interest-only mortgages. There was a lot of bad lending involving interest-only mortgages, so it will be interesting to see what that market sector looks like as it matures over the next few years.

Balancing Consumer Protection and Access to Credit

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S&P posted U.S. RMBS Roundtable: Originators, Aggregators, and Counsel Discuss New Qualified Mortgage Rules. In summarizing the roundtable, S&P notes that

The ability-to-repay rule, ostensibly to prevent defaults and another housing crisis, is still very much open to interpretation. To that end, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services recently held a private roundtable with several market participants. The confidential discussion offered the attendees an opportunity to share their views and interpretations of these rules, offer opinions on how to operate efficiently within the scope of the rules, and highlight perceived conflicts the rules still present.

In our view, the discussion identified some common themes, notably:

    • Most originators will focus on QM-Safe Harbor loans to avoid liability and achieve the best execution.
    • Many originators will also find attractive opportunities to originate non-QM loans.
    • Non-agency originations of QM or non-QM loans will continue to focus on super-prime borrowers as lenders find that the best defense is to limit the potential for default.
    • The documentation standards used by originators will be the key to compliance with the rule. (2)

There are a lot of interesting tidbits in this document, including speculation about the role of technology in the brave new world of mortgage lending.  The summary ended on a guardedly optimistic note:

While the rule leaves significant room for interpretation, originators generally felt that the final rule to be implemented in January 2014 is better than expected. They expressed hope that regulators will be vigilant in pursuing violations that are reasonable. Originators still see challenges for originations of non-QM loans, but they don’t believe they are insurmountable, and many expect that non-QM loans will be represented in origination volume throughout 2014. The challenges that remain are the market’s pricing of QM safe harbor, rebuttable presumption, and non-QM loans; required credit enhancement levels; the effects of risk retention rules, which have yet to be finalized; and the ultimate costs associated with the assignee liability provisions in the rule. (7)

If these industry participants are right, it will look like regulators did a pretty good job of balancing consumer protection and access to credit. Let’s hope!

Effect of Qualified Mortgages on Credit Availability: Little to None

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The Congressional Research Service has issued a somewhat opaque report, The Ability-to-Repay Rule: Possible Effects of the Qualified Mortgage Definition on Credit Availability and Other Selected Issues, that summarizes the Ability-to-Repay Rule.  More importantly, it offers a bit of an evaluation of the impact of the new regulatory regime for mortgages on the availability of credit.

According to the CFPB, “close to 100% of the 2011 mortgage market would have been in compliance with the” Ability-to-Repay Rule. (9) The CFPB thus believes that the rule will “have a minimal effect on access to credit.”  (9) The report reviews two alternative estimates, one by CoreLogic and another by Amherst Securities, that offer a less optimistic forecast.

CoreLogic uses 2010 data for its analysis. The CRS appears to agree with me that the CoreLogic report is misleading, but it does report that CoreLogic believes that nearly half of all mortgages will not meet the Qualified Mortgage rules once temporary compliance options for the rule expire.  I do not credit the CoreLogic report and would discount its findings for the reasons that I have given previously and for the additional reasons contained in the CRS report.

Amherst takes a look at jumbo mortgages in 2012 and finds that a significant portion of them would not comply with the rule. I have not seen the Amherst report, so I can only respond to what I read about it in the CRS report.  The bottom line appears that about eight percent of jumbos are likely not to comply with the rule.  Given that jumbos make up about 10% of the mortgage market (at least according to CoreLogic), we are talking about one percent of the total residential mortgage market.  Many of those non-complying mortgages do not comply because of limitations on debt-to-income ratio.  Thus, it would appear that the affected borrowers could get mortgages for smaller amounts that would comply with the rule.

I think it is safe to say that based on what we know now, the rule will have an extremely modest effect on credit availability.

Reiss on Qualified Mortgage Rule

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TheStreet.com quoted me in a story, New Mortgage Lending Rule Intended to Protect Borrowers May Hurt Self-Employed.  It reads in part,

“Lenders are incentivized to originate qualified mortgages, because doing so makes it easier to defend against borrower lawsuits,” says David Reiss, a law professor at Brooklyn Law School. “In return, lenders must ensure that the terms of the mortgage conform with certain requirements that protect borrowers from abusive terms.”

Qualified mortgage loans cannot have interest-only periods, negative amortization, exceed 30 years, and cannot have balloon payments at the end of the term, with exceptions in rural or underserved areas. Further, qualified mortgage loans cannot exceed 43% of the borrower’s monthly pretax income, and borrowers must provide proof of income or assets.

“Determining whether self-employed individuals are able to make the loan payments presents particular challenges,” says Reiss. “The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau had originally proposed that self-employed individuals provide heavy documentation of their income, and for the lender to make sophisticated judgments about that income.”

In response to comments, the CFPB, in its proposal, subsequently reduced income documentation requirements and the level of lender income analysis required, Reiss says, but adds that “applicants must still demonstrate that their income is stable or increasing.”