Armed, Unarmed or Harmed by Knowledge?

I posted Armed, Unarmed or Harmed by Knowledge? A Comment on the FHA’s Housing Counseling Pilot Program to SSRN (and to BePress). The abstract reads,

The FHA has requested input on its Homeowners Armed with Knowledge (HAWK) for New Homebuyers pilot program. This comment letter argues that housing counseling is not a proven solution to the problem it is meant to solve, excessive defaults by FHA borrowers. HAWK is a traditional housing counseling program but the scholarly literature casts into doubt the efficacy of such programs. It would be better to take time to research which counseling strategies, if any, are proven to be effective. This is true for the FHA but also for other government agencies, such as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, that have devoted significant resources to unproven financial counseling programs.

This comment was submitted to the FHA in response to its request for input on its Homeowners Armed with Knowledge (HAWK) for New Homebuyers program.

Regular readers of this blog will be familiar with my take on this topic as the comment is adapted from blog posts that have addressed various financial education topics.

Input on Housing Counseling

HUD has issued a Notice, Federal Housing Administration (FHA): Homeowners Armed With Knowledge (HAWK) for New Homebuyers (Docket No. FR-5786-N-01).

HAWK is a pilot that will

provide FHA insurance pricing incentives to first-time homebuyers who participate in housing counseling and education that covers how to evaluate housing affordability and mortgage alternatives, to better manage their finances, and to understand the rights and responsibilities of homeownership. The goals of the HAWK for New Homebuyers pilot (HAWK Pilot) are to test and evaluate program designs that meet these objectives:

•To improve the loan performance of participants and reduce claims paid by FHA’s Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund (MMIF).

• To expand the number of families who improve their budgeting skills and housing decisions through access to HUD-approved housing counseling agency services; and

• To increase access to sustainable home mortgages for homebuyers underserved by the current market. (27896)

I have already noted that HAWK is based upon some pretty sketchy research about the efficacy of housing counseling. The Notice presents additional research (in footnotes 5-8) that supports its goals, but I have to say that it seems cherry picked to me. The notice says, for instance, “some studies show” and “Several major studies have recently noted a correlation . . ..” But the Notice does not seem to contextualize these studies at all. A meta-analysis (see here too) of financial education initiatives is decidedly less optimistic.

It seems that the FHA and the CFPB have gone whole hog on counseling even though the evidence is not there to support such strong support. On the bright side, HAWK is a pilot program and the FHA will evaluate it to see whether it meets its goal of “improving loan performance.” (27903) I am just worried a bit worried though, because the FHA’s materials seem to show an unwarranted bias toward counseling that a review of the relevant literature does not seem to bear out.

The HAWK Notice requests comments by July 14, 2014, so you’d better act fast if you have something to say!

Wary of FHA HAWKing Mortgage Access

The Federal Housing Administration issued its Access Blueprint: What FHA is Doing to Expand Access to Mortgage Credit for Underserved Borrowers. The blueprint identifies a serious problem:

The economic crisis significantly constrained credit making it tough for anyone with less than perfect credit to obtain a mortgage.

According to the Urban Institute, the average credit score for loans sold to the GSEs is 752. Currently, there are 13 million people with credit scores ranging from 580 to 680. Shutting these consumers out of the market hurts American families and undermines our efforts to build more stable communities, create pathways to the middle class, and increase homeownership opportunities for minority and low-wealth borrowers.

A healthy mortgage market serves all qualified borrowers. FHA is committed to finding ways to responsibly increase access for underserved borrowers. (3)

Unfortunately, the FHA’s solutions to this problem seem half-baked. The blueprint states that “Responsible access can be enhanced by ensuring borrowers are well-educated about the home- buying and mortgage finance process.” (3) Under the heading, Homeowners Armed with Knowledge (HAWK), the blueprint states that “Housing Counseling works.  Research shows a strong correlation between housing counseling and mortgage performance.” (4)

As the FHA should know, correlation is not the same thing as causation. It could be that those who have the traits that make them likely to sign up for housing counseling also make them more likely to make their mortgage payments. In fact, the scholarly literature on making people financially capable is not so comforting when it comes to decreasing credit defaults.

The blueprint has other disturbing passages that make one wonder if the FHA is keeping safety and soundness concerns as high priorities. For instance, it states that

FHA primarily selects higher-risk loans for review, e.g. loans evidencing payment challenges. FHA recognizes that this risk-based approach does not accurately reflect a lenders overall underwriting quality as it is primarily focused on non-performing loans. Going forward, we plan to expand our evaluation of loans to include random sampling of performing loans closer to the time of endorsement. This approach provides a more balanced view of underwriting quality. (5)

This is kind of the inverse of the old saw about the drunk who is searching for something for a long time under a lamp post.  When asked why he is looking so long and so unsuccessfully in that one place, he responds that that is is where the light is. FHA appears to be saying that it is going to be spending less time looking in the problem areas because that is where they are likely to find problems. What is that about?#@!?

Obviously, the FHA should be focused on promoting sustainable homeownership for “all qualified borrowers.” (3)  Obviously, the FHA should find ways to “responsibly increase access for underserved borrowers.” (3) What is not obvious is whether the FHA’s blueprint will achieve those goals.