Shiller on Primitive Housing Finance

Robert Shiller has posted Why Is Housing Finance Still Stuck in Such a Primitive Stage? The abstract for this brief discussion paper reads:

The institutions for financing owner-occupied housing have not progressed as they should, and the financial innovation that has followed the financial crisis of 2007-9 has not been focused on improving the risk management of individual homeowners. This paper lists a number of barriers to housing finance innovation, and in light of these barriers, the problems of some major innovations of the past and future: self-amortizing mortgages, price-level adjusted mortgages (PLAMs), shared appreciation mortgages (SAMs), housing partnerships, and continuous workout mortgages (CWMs). (1)

The paper is more of an outline than a fleshed out argument, but it has some interesting points (and not just because the author recently won a Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics).  They include

  • Shared appreciation mortgages (SAMs), which offered some risk management of home price appreciation, were offered by the Bank of Scotland and Bear Stearns in the 1990s, but acquired a damaged reputation with the boom in home prices. U.K. homeowners who took such mortgages, and lost out on the speculative gains, were so angered that they filed a class-action lawsuit against the issuers. The suit was dropped, but the reputation loss was permanent. (5)

  • There has been some questioning of the assumption that insuring homeowners against a decline in home value is a good thing. Sinai and Soulelis (2014) have written that the existing  mortgage institutions may be close to optimal given that people want to live in their house forever, or move to a similar house whose price is correlated with the present house, and so are perfectly hedged. But their paper cannot be exactly right, given the sense of distress that homeowners are experiencing who are underwater. They are more certainly not right about all homeowners, many of whom actually plan to sell their home when they retire. (5-6)

  • The difficulties in making improvements in mortgage institutions have to do with the complexity of the risk management problem, coupled with mistrust of institutional players. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, created by the Dodd-Frank Act and having authority over mortgages, among other things, seems oriented towards addressing complaints from the public, and has focused its attention so far on such things as unfair collection practices, bias against minorities, and excessive complexity of financial products being used to confuse customers. These are laudable concerns, but complaints that economists might register about the fundamental success of mortgage products to serve risk management well have not yet taken center stage. (6)

  • New Development economics, Karlan and Appel (2011), Bannerjee and Duflo (2012) has shown how carefully controlled experiments can reveal solid steps to take regarding new financial institutions for poverty reduction. The same methods could be used to improve mortgage institutions, as well as rental, leasing, partnership and cooperative institutions, in advanced countries. (7)

These are just brief thoughts. It will be interesting to see how Shiller develops them further.

Weigh in on Mortgage Closing “Pain Points”

The Consumer Finance Protection Bureau has issued a Request for Information Regarding the Mortgage Closing Process. The CFPB wants

information from the public about mortgage closing. Specifically, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) seeks information on key consumer “pain points” associated with mortgage closing and how those pain points might be addressed by market innovations and technology.

The CFPB seeks to encourage the development of a more streamlined, efficient, and educational closing process as the mortgage industry increases its usage of technology, electronic signatures, and paperless processes. The next phase of CFPB’s Know Before You Owe initiative aims to identify ways to improve the mortgage closing process for consumers. This project will encourage interventions that increase consumer knowledge, understanding, and confidence at closing.

This notice seeks information from market participants, consumers, and other stakeholders who work closely with consumers. The information will inform the CFPB’s understanding of what consumers find most problematic about the current closing process and inform the CFPB’s vision for an improved closing experience. (79 F.R. 386)

The CFPB is particularly interested in responses to the following questions:

1. What are common problems or issues consumers face at closing? What parts of the closing process do consumers find confusing or overwhelming?Show citation box

2. Are there specific parts of the closing process that borrowers find particularly helpful?

3. What do consumers remember about closing as related to the overall mortgage/home-buying process? What do consumers remember about closing?

4. How long does the closing process usually take? Do borrowers feel that the time at the closing table was an appropriate amount of time? Is it too long? Too short? Just right?

5. How empowered do consumers seem to feel at closing? Did they come to closing with questions? Did they review the forms beforehand? Did they know that they can request their documents in advance? Did they negotiate?

6. What, if anything, have you found helps consumers understand the terms of the loan? (79 F.R. 387)

It is rare that a federal agency requests information and comments from the Average Joe, Joe Sixpack and Joe the Plumber. So this is a chance for educated consumers of mortgages to be heard at the highest levels about the flaws in the home loan closing process. I encourage readers of REFinblog.com to make their voices heard!

CFPB’s Regulatory Agenda — Collect More Data!

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has published its Semiannual Regulatory Agenda in the Federal Register.  Of note are amendments to the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act’s Regulation C. These amendments are in the prerule stage.  The Agenda states that HMDA

requires certain financial institutions to collect and report information in connection with housing-related loans and applications they receive for such loans. The amendments made by the Dodd-Frank Act expand the scope of information relating to mortgage applications and loans that must be compiled, maintained, and reported under HMDA, including the ages of loan applicants and mortgagors, information relating to the points and fees payable at origination, the difference between the annual percentage rate associated with the loan and benchmark rates for all loans, the term of any prepayment penalty, the value of real property to be pledged as collateral, the term of the loan and of any introductory interest rate for the loan, the presence of contract terms allowing non-amortizing payments, the origination channel, and the credit scores of applicants and mortgagors. The Dodd-Frank Act also provides authority for the CFPB to require other information, including identifiers for loans, parcels, and loan originators. The CFPB expects to begin developing proposed regulations concerning the data to be collected and appropriate format, procedures, information safeguards, and privacy protections for information compiled and reported under HMDA. The CFPB may consider additional revisions to its regulations to accomplish the purposes of HMDA. (1243)

While esoteric for most, this is an important development. The lending industry collects lots of loan-level data. But that data is very expensive to access for academic and policy researchers. Improved loan-level data will better allow government agencies and researchers to study the mortgage market in a timely way. This will allow them (hopefull!) to identify unsustainable and predatory developments more quickly.

In another effort relevant to the mortgage market, the CFPB also noted that it “is continuing rulemaking activities that will further establish the Bureau’s nonbank supervisory authority by defining larger participants of certain markets for consumer financial products and services. Larger participants of such markets, as the Bureau defines by rule, are subject to the Bureau’s supervisory authority.” (1242)

Reiss on New Mortgage Regime

Loans.org quoted me in a story, CFPB Rules Reiterate Current and Future Lending Practices. It reads in part,

David Reiss, professor of law at the Brooklyn Law School, said there could be other long-term effects due to this high DTI ratio since the lending rules will likely remain for several decades.

If the rules remain intact, the high DTI number can still be lowered at a later time. For instance, if few defaults occur when the bar is set at 43 percent, the limit might increase. Conversely, if a large number of defaults occur, the limit will decrease even further.

Reiss hopes that the agencies overseeing the rule will make these changes based on empirical evidence.

“I’m hopeful that regulation in this area will be numbers driven,” he said.

Despite the wording, Bill Parker, senior loan officer at Gencor Mortgage, said that lenders are technically “not required to ensure borrowers can repay their loans.” He said lenders are legally required to make a “good faith effort” for reviewing documents and facts about the borrower and indicating if he or she can repay the debt.

“If they do so, following the directives of the CFPB, then they are protected against suit by said borrower in the future,” Parker said. “If they can’t prove they investigated as required, then they lose the Safe Harbor and have to prove the borrower has not suffered harm because of this.”

The statute of limitations for the CFPB law is three years from the start of loan payments. After that time period, the lender is no longer required to provide evidence of loan compliance.

Even though the amendment could impact the current lending market, experts told loans.org that the CFPB’s standards will make a greater impact on the future of the housing industry.

Reiss believes that the stricter rules will create a sustainable lending market.

Qualified Mortgages and The Community Reinvestment Act

Regulators issued an Interagency Statement on Supervisory Approach for Qualified and Non-Qualified Mortgage Loans relating to the interaction between the QM rules and Community Reinvestment Act enforcement. This statement complements a similar rule issued in October that addressed the interaction between the QM rules and fair lending enforcement.

The statement acknowledges that lenders are still trying to figure out their way around the new mortgage rules (QM & ATR) that will go into effect in January. The agencies state that “the requirements of the Bureau’s Ability-to-Repay Rule and CRA are compatible. Accordingly, the agencies that conduct CRA evaluations do not anticipate that institutions’ decision to originate only QMs, absent other factors, would adversely affect their CRA evaluations.” (2)

This is important for lenders who intend to only originate plain vanilla QMs. There have been concerns that doing so may result in comparatively few mortgages being CRA-eligible. It seems eminently reasonable that lenders not find themselves between a CRA rock and a QM hard place if they decide to go the QM-only route. That being said, it will be important to continue to monitor whether low- and moderate-income neighborhoods are receiving sufficient amounts of mortgage credit. Given that major lenders are likely to originate non-QM products, this may not be a problem. But we will have to see how the non-QM sector develops next year before we can know for sure.

Reiss on Predatory Online Lending

E-Commerce Times quoted me in CFPB Suit Targets Predatory Online Lending Practices. It reads in part:

The Consumer Finance Protection Bureau this week put online finance companies on notice that it will not overlook them merely because they operate in cyberspace. Specifically, the bureau sued CashCall for collecting money consumers allegedly did not owe.  In its suit, the bureau charged that CashCall and its affiliates engaged in unfair, deceptive, and abusive practices, including illegally debiting consumer checking accounts for loans that were void.

CashCall and the associated companies are reportedly owned by J. Paul Reddam, a race-horse owner and philosophy professor-turned-businessman.

The Background

Beginning in late 2009, CashCall and its subsidiary, WS Funding, entered into an arrangement with online lender Western Sky Financial, according to the CFPB. Western Sky Financial has asserted that the laws in the state in which it is based — South Dakota — did not apply to it because it was based on an Indian reservation and owned by a member of the Cheyenne River Sioux Tribe.

The CFPB maintains Western Sky still must comply with state laws when it makes loans over the Internet to people in other states.

The loans ranged from US$850 to $10,000 and came with upfront fees, lengthy repayment terms and annual interest rates from nearly 90 percent to 343 percent, the CFPB said. Many of the loan agreements allowed payments to be debited directly from the borrower’s bank account.

By September 2013, Western Sky had become the subject of several states’ investigations and court actions, and it began to shut down its business. CashCall and its collection agency, Delbert Services, continued to take monthly installment payments from consumers’ bank accounts or otherwise sought to collect money from borrowers.

After its own investigation, the bureau concluded that the high-cost loans violated either licensing requirements or interest-rate caps, or both, in Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Indiana, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York and North Carolina, meaning the consumers did not owe that money that was being collected.

As part of its suit, the CFPB is seeking monetary relief, damages, and civil penalties.

The CFPB did not respond to our request for further details.

*     *     *

‘Particularly Weak’

 

While there might not be much controversy over the CFPB’s suit against an online lender, CashCall is certainly defending itself using other arguments.

Clearly, the action falls within the CFPB’s broad mission of protecting consumers from predatory behaviors in the financial services industry, asserted David Reiss, a professor of Law at Brooklyn Law School.

However, CashCall’s attorneys, Neil Barofsky and Katya Jestin, have said that the CFPB does not have a mandate to impose rate caps.

“Of all of CashCall’s arguments, this one seems particularly weak,” Reiss concluded, “as the CFPB is just seeking to enforce existing state laws that have been allegedly violated across the country.”

Non-QM Mortgages Risks and Best Practices

Moody’s issued a report, Non-QM US RMBS Face Higher Risk of Losses Than QM, but Impact on Transactions Will Vary, that discusses the risk that

US RMBS backed by non-qualified mortgages (those that do not meet a variety of underwriting criteria under new guidelines) will incur higher loss severities on defaulted loans than those backed by qualified mortgages. The key driver of the loss severities will be the higher legal costs and penalties for non-QM securitizations. In non-QM transactions, a defaulted borrower can more easily sue a securitization trust on the grounds that the loan violated the Ability-to-Repay (ATR) rule under the Dodd-Frank Act. . . . The extent of the risks for RMBS will vary, however, depending on the mortgage originators’ practices and documentation, the strength of the transactions’ representations and warranties, and whether the transactions include indemnifications that shield them from borrower lawsuits. (1)

The higher costs for non-QM investors may include longer foreclosure timelines and the resulting wear on the collateral.

If Moody’s analysis is right, however, the Dodd-Frank regime will be working as intended. It should incentivize mortgage originators to strengthen their compliance practices such as those relating to documentation, recordkeeping and third party due diligence. It should also incentivize securitizers to demand strong reps and warranties, put back and indemnification provisions. Sounds like a reasonable trade off to  me.