Tag Archives: 10 year Treasury

Condo Project Borrows From Its Future Residents

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By AramilFeraxa – Own work, CC BY 4.0

The Wall Street Journal quoted me in The Luxury Beverly Hills Condo Project Borrowing Money From Its Future Residents (behind a paywall). It opens,

The developer behind one of the country’s most expensive real-estate projects has an unusual request for its condo buyers: Lend us money.

Purchasers of the site’s roughly 150 condo units are also providing debt to help Cain, an investment firm based in London, fund its $10 billion project, known as One Beverly Hills.

The 17.5-acre site, set to be completed in 2029, will include high-end retail such as Dolce & Gabbana, upscale dining, 78 new hotel suites and acres of botanical gardens. The ultraluxury condos will be operated by Aman, one of the world’s leading high-end hotel operators.

The condo owners’ debt takes the form of a bond—the developers call them Founder Bonds—and buyers will receive a return of 5%, according to a person familiar with the matter.

No condo buyers are forced to participate in the bond program. Founder Bonds offer a financial return and the opportunity to assist in the construction of their future home, Cain has told condo buyers.

When the Founder Bond program was launched early last year, 10-year Treasury debt offered less than 5% returns. In recent weeks, however, the 10-year yield has exceeded that level, rising above 5.3% at one point this month. That means Founder Bond holders are now earning less than the yield on Treasurys, which are commonly considered the “risk-free” rate.

But some say this rarely seen financing tool sticks condo buyers with a risk.

The bonds are junior to other debt on the project, which includes a $2.8 billion senior loan led by J.P. Morgan and a $1.5 billion mezzanine loan from VICI Properties. Parts of both loans are conditional on Cain hitting certain sales milestones.

That means that if the condo towers were to fall short of completion—in a city where most luxury buyers are focused on single-family homes and estates—bondholders could be left not only without the penthouse they were expecting, but also without the extra money lent to the developers.

“Even though these are luxury buyers, I would guess they’re going to face more exposure if the project goes bust than they may realize,” said David Reiss, a professor at Cornell Law School, who researches real-estate finance. “They’re getting paid a small amount to take a large amount of risk…but because they’re luxury, they may be able to tolerate the risk better.”

Down in ARMs

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TheStreet.com quoted me in Top 5 Lowest 7-Year ARM Rates. It opens,

U.S. mortgage rates have continued to decline in the aftermath of the Brexit vote, low Treasury rates and stagnant economy, giving potential homeowners an opportunity to save money because of the dip.

The current market conditions give homeowners in the U.S. an opportunity to take advantage of the continuation of low mortgage rates since the Federal Reserve has not increased interest rates.

But, how do you snag the absolute lowest rates, especially if you don’t plan on staying in your first home for more than seven years and are learning toward 7/1 adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs)?

The 7-year ARMs are attractive to consumers, especially first-time homebuyers, because the interest rates are lower, helping you save more money each month compared to the traditional 30-year mortgage.

“You get what amounts to a fixed rate mortgage, but at a lower rate than the traditional 30-year fixed,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst of Bankrate, a North Palm Beach, Fla.-based financial content company.

While lower monthly payments are appealing, the interest rates reset after seven years, and it can be difficult to determine how much they will increase.

“If your timetable changes, then you may want to reconsider the loan you have,” he said. “You don’t want to be in the position of facing rising monthly payments that squeeze your budget or jeopardize your ability to afford your own home.”

Consumers on fixed incomes and saddled with student loans and credit card debt might opt for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, because it represents “permanent payment affordability,” McBride said. The principal and interest will never change, because it is a fixed rate and can be easier to budget.

“It may not always be the optimal choice, but it is the safest choice,” he said.

Adjustable rate mortgages can still be beneficial if homeowners take advantage of the savings each month and allocate it towards paying down debt or into an emergency fund.

“Even if you’re still holding the 7-year ARM at the end of seven years, that doesn’t automatically turn it into a bad decision,” McBride said. “You will have banked seven years of savings relative to the fixed rate mortgage that can help you absorb any payment increases until you refinance or sell the home.”

Many consumers gravitate toward the 30-year mortgage, because the payments are stable and have been very low, said Jonathan Smoke, chief economist for Realtor.com, a Santa Clara, Calif.-based real estate company. Others are seeking the 7-year ARM, because they are more likely to qualify for a mortgage.

Mortgage activity so far in 2016 reveals that only 3% of mortgages have had shorter rate terms, according to Realtor.com’s analysis of purchase mortgage activity. Hybrid term mortgages such as the 7/1 ARM typically increase in share when “mortgage rates rise because the shorter fixed term offers a lower rate, often between 40 and 100 basis points,” he said. “The lower rate translates into a lower payment for the duration of the initial term, which is seven years.”

Each lender utilizes a benchmark such as a the 10-year U.S. Treasury or LIBOR rate and a margin, which is “what is added to the benchmark to determine your new rate,” Smoke said. The loans also have a cap on how high any single rate change can be and also a ceiling on how high the rate can ever be, he said.

At the end of the seven years, homeowners can choose to refinance to a lower fixed rate, but need to budget for the closing costs.

A lower rate upfront can be favorable for younger homeowners, but examining the ceiling rate and how it will impact your monthly payments is crucial.

“A mortgage broker or lender can help you walk through scenarios to determine if your timeline could benefit,” Smoke said. “To help calm any nerves about just how high your payment could go, ask yourself if you are willing to exchange the initial seven year savings for how long you might keep that mortgage after the seven-year period is up.”

Paying the premium for the peace of mind that your payments will remain static means that if interest rates rise several percentages in the next few years, you won’t be faced with having to consider the lower rate options or lower priced homes and/or more money down, he said.

“That’s why hybrids will likely become more popular in the future compared to how little they are used today,” Smoke said.

Since people have a tendency to change homes every seven years on average, a 7/1 ARM could be a good option because the savings can be substantial, said David Reiss, a law professor at Brooklyn Law School in N.Y.

“Even if you are not planning to move now, the future may bring changes such as divorce, frail relatives, job loss or new job opportunities,” he said. “Some people like the certainty of the 30-year fixed rate mortgages, but it is worth calculating just how much that certainty will cost you.”