Thursday’s Advocacy & Think Tank Round-Up

  • The National Association of Realtors (NAR)’s Existing Home Sales (EHS) (completed transactions).  EHS fell  10.5% from October and 3.8% from last November.  NAR believes this precipitous decline is not due to any decrease in demand but, rather, tight inventory and the Industry’s having to adjust to new “Know Before You Owe” mortgage disclosure rules.
  • Seeking Alpha blog’s about the evolving receivership of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Troubles with TRID

"The Trouble with Tribbles" Stark Trek Episode

Law360 quoted me in Rule-Driven Home Sale Slump Could Be Temporary. It reads, in part,

A slump in existing home sales in November can be traced to the implementation of a new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau mortgage closing regime, although experts say that most of the closing delays could ease as the industry and consumers get more comfortable with the new rules.

The National Association of Realtors released a report Tuesday saying that while a continued lack of inventory of existing homes for sale and other factors helped drive down the number of completed home sales in November, the number of signed contracts for home purchases remained relatively constant. With that in mind, the Realtors pointed to the CFPB’s TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure rule, which combined two key mortgage disclosure forms and went into effect in October, as the reason for the slowdown.

That slowdown was anticipated because real estate agents and lenders had reported difficulties in complying with the rule, which combined closing forms required by the Truth In Lending Act and the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act, prior to it coming into effect. However, experts say that the closing delays are likely to decrease as the industry understands the rule better and technology to comply with it improves.

“It’s like a python swallowing a boar … the boar has to work its way through the python,” said David Reiss, a professor at Brooklyn Law School.

The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales slumped to 4.76 million nationwide in November from 5.32 million in October, a fall of 10.5 percent. That October figure was also revised down from an initial estimate of 5.36 million.

The November figure was also down from the 4.95 million existing sales figure from the same period last year, and put total existing home sales 3.8 percent behind the total from last year, the National Association of Realtors said.

While the real estate industry group cited the usual factors of tight supply and inflated prices in many regions of the country as a reason for the slowdown in existing home sales, it also cited the TRID rule’s implementation as a reason for the slump.

*     *     *

Most lenders, real estate agents and other market participants had already begun to factor in the new TRID requirements in the closing process, adding 15 days to the usual 30-day closing process, said Richard J. Andreano, a partner at Ballard Spahr LLP.

“When I saw the November drop, I thought that was a natural consequence of correct planning,” he said.

Despite the slowdown, Yun said in the NAR release that because contracts were signed and the problems came down to issues with closing.

“As long as closing time frames don’t rise even further, it’s likely more sales will register to this month’s total, and November’s large dip will be more of an outlier,” he said.

The CFPB, Reiss and Andreano all agreed that at least some of the delays will work out of the system as the industry gets more accustomed to TRID’s changes.

“The ones that have adjusted have done it by adding a lot of staff, either reallocating or hiring and assigning them to the closing process to get it done,” Andreano said.

And the delays that remain may not be a bad thing, Reiss said.

“It really keeps consumers from being surprised at the closing table. This gives a little bit more time to the consumer where they’re not getting waylaid,” he said.

Thursday’s Advocacy & Think Tank Round-Up

  • The Federal Reserve Bank of NY’s Center for Microeconomic Data has released its 3rd quarter Household Debt and Credit Report which shows that Mortgage debt, the largest component of household debt, increased in by $144 billion since the 2nd quarter of 2015.  Balances on Home Equity Lines of Credit decreased by $7 billion.
  • The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) sent a letter to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, proposing that advocating upfront risk sharing targets be set for 2016.  This proposal is prompted by FHFA’s near doubling of insurance fees, which are necessary to reduce the risks borne by the taxpayer when debtors default.  The MBA is advocating for private opportunity to compete in the insurance of these loans – which they say will lead to lower fees for borrowers as well.
  • The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has released its Pending Home Sales Index for October which inches up .2% to sustain 14 consecutive months of increase.  NAR also is predicting another housing boom for 2016.

Thursday’s Advocacy & Think TankRound-Up

Home Buyers & Home Sellers

Jkirriemuir

The National Association of Realtors has issued its 2015 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers (highlights only at this link). The profile derives from NAR’s annual survey of recent home buyers and sellers. NAR found that

Demographics continue to shift as the share of first-time home buyers dropped further from last year’s report to 32 percent of the market. This is second only to the lowest share reported in 1987 of 30 percent. Last year’s report had a share of first-time buyers of 33 percent. First-time home buyers are traditionally more likely to be single male or female home buyers and traditionally have lower incomes. As the share of repeat buyers continues to rise, the number of married couples increases and the income of home buyers purchasing homes is higher. Married couples have double the buying power of single home buyers in the market and may be better able to meet the price increases of the housing market. (5)

This adds to the findings of a variety of earlier studies that have described long-term demographic trends that will affect the housing market in very big ways.

I was particularly intrigued by one finding about sellers,

Increased prices are also impacting sellers. Tenure in the home had risen to a peak of 10 years, but in this year’s report it has eased back to nine years. Historically, tenure in the home has been six to seven years. Sellers may now have the equity and buyer demand to sell their home after stalling or delaying their home sale. (5)

This is a dramatic change and reflects the the long-term effects of the Great Recession — just as people delayed buying a new car after the financial crisis, they also delayed purchasing a new home. It’s just that they delay takes longer to see.

The report also has a series of highlights about houses, brokers and mortgages that are worth a looksee.

 

Thursday’s Advocacy & Think Tank Round-Up

Hello readers,

Due to  a technical issue Thursday’s Round-up was delayed until today.

  • The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has released its Pending Home Sales Index for September.  According to NAR pending home sales are down 2.3% from August, this is the second straight month in which the statistic is down.  Year over year it is still up for the 13th straight month.
  • NYU’s Furman Center has released a policy paper series Multifamily Housing Resilience which points out the continued vulnerability of multifamily housing in NYC and Miami  – both cities have a large percentage of multifamily dwellings in floodplains.  One consequence, detailed in The Price of Resilience, is that affordable housing is caught between a rock (unaffordable flood insurance) and a hard place (unaffordable flood prevention upgrades).

Thursday’s Advocacy & Think Tank Round-Up

  • Citylab finds that urban farmers and real estate developers are teaming up in an unlikely alliance to create housing which incorporates on site food production, the latest in trendy, locavore hip.
  • Enterprise Community Partners has launched a national sign on letter to oppose Cuts, lift spending caps and restore funding to the Home Investment Partnership Program (HOME). HOME, according to Enterprise, is “the only Federal Housing Program exclusively focused on providing states and localities flexible gap financing for affordable housing development” for the low and very low income populations (seniors, the disabled, etc.)
  • New York Times editorial argues that the relief promised to homeowners facing foreclosure only materialized for banks, who unloaded toxic loans on the government, and private equity firms, who are now purchasing loans back from the government, at a discount and continuing  to foreclose.
  • National Association of Realtors finds that most Zombie homes (think unoccupied – long term vacancy) are not foreclosures but owned free and clear of mortgages.