Input on Housing Counseling

HUD has issued a Notice, Federal Housing Administration (FHA): Homeowners Armed With Knowledge (HAWK) for New Homebuyers (Docket No. FR-5786-N-01).

HAWK is a pilot that will

provide FHA insurance pricing incentives to first-time homebuyers who participate in housing counseling and education that covers how to evaluate housing affordability and mortgage alternatives, to better manage their finances, and to understand the rights and responsibilities of homeownership. The goals of the HAWK for New Homebuyers pilot (HAWK Pilot) are to test and evaluate program designs that meet these objectives:

•To improve the loan performance of participants and reduce claims paid by FHA’s Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund (MMIF).

• To expand the number of families who improve their budgeting skills and housing decisions through access to HUD-approved housing counseling agency services; and

• To increase access to sustainable home mortgages for homebuyers underserved by the current market. (27896)

I have already noted that HAWK is based upon some pretty sketchy research about the efficacy of housing counseling. The Notice presents additional research (in footnotes 5-8) that supports its goals, but I have to say that it seems cherry picked to me. The notice says, for instance, “some studies show” and “Several major studies have recently noted a correlation . . ..” But the Notice does not seem to contextualize these studies at all. A meta-analysis (see here too) of financial education initiatives is decidedly less optimistic.

It seems that the FHA and the CFPB have gone whole hog on counseling even though the evidence is not there to support such strong support. On the bright side, HAWK is a pilot program and the FHA will evaluate it to see whether it meets its goal of “improving loan performance.” (27903) I am just worried a bit worried though, because the FHA’s materials seem to show an unwarranted bias toward counseling that a review of the relevant literature does not seem to bear out.

The HAWK Notice requests comments by July 14, 2014, so you’d better act fast if you have something to say!

Can You Help Someone Become Financially Capable?

Researchers at the World Bank have posted Can You Help Someone Become Financially Capable? A Meta-Analysis of the Literature.The abstract reads,

This paper presents a systematic and comprehensive meta-analysis of the literature on financial education interventions.  The analysis focuses on financial education studies designed to strengthen the financial knowledge and behaviors of consumers. The analysis identifies188 papers and articles that present impact results of interventions designed to increase consumers’ financial knowledge (financial literacy) or skills, attitudes, and behaviors (financial capability). These papers are diverse across a number of dimensions, including objectives of the  program intervention, expected outcomes, intensity and duration of the intervention, delivery channel used, and type of population targeted. However, there are a few key outcome indicators where a subset of papers are comparable, including those that address savings behavior, defaults on loans, and financial skills, such as record keeping. The results from the meta analysis indicate that financial literacy and capability interventions can have a positive impact in some areas (increasing savings and promoting financial skills such a record keeping) but not in others (credit default).

I hope that policy makers at the CFPB have reviewed this paper carefully. The Bureau has a financial education mission that must be built on solid research if it hopes to improve outcomes for consumers. A lot of the scholarly work in this area has questioned the efficacy of financial education, but the Bureau seems to be going full speed ahead with it. The Bureau should bore down into the literature to determine which types of interventions are effective before allocating funds indiscriminately to new initiatives.

I am particularly concerned about the last sentence of the abstract which indicates that interventions have failed to improve consumer behavior when it comes to credit default. That seems to be a big problem for any financial skills initiative. Further research should focus on alternative interventions that might be effective in reducing credit default by consumers. And funds should not be wasted in the interim on unproven initiatives in this area.

CFPB Strategy on Mortgage Data

The CFPB released its Strategic Plan, Budget, and Performance Plan and Report which provides a good summary of what the Bureau has done to date. I was particularly interested in this summary of its work to build a representative database of mortgages:

In FY 2013, the CFPB began a partnership with the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) to build the National Mortgage Database (NMDB). This work continues in FY 2014. For this database, the FHFA and the Bureau have procured (from a credit reporting agency) credit information with respect to a random and representative sample of 5% of mortgages held by consumers. The NMDB is the first dataset that will provide a truly representative sample of mortgages so as to allow analysis of mortgages over the life of the loans, including firsts, seconds, and home equity loans.

In all of the data used for its analyses, the Bureau will work to ensure that strong protections are in place around personally identifiable information. (66)

Such a database (assuming privacy concerns are adequately addressed) will be an invaluable tool for the Bureau (and researchers too, to the extent that they are allowed to access it). One question that the Strategic Plan does not answer is how fresh will the mortgage data be. The mortgage market can innovate at warp speed, as it did in the mid-2000s, so it will be important for the CFPB database to be as current as possible and accessible to researchers as quickly as possible. That being said, even if the data is a bit stale, it will still provide invaluable guidance regarding abusive behaviors in the market. It should also provide guidance regarding a lack of sustainable credit in the market generally as well as within those communities that have historically suffered from such a lack, low- and moderate-income communities as well as communities of color.

On a separate note, I would say that the Strategic Plan makes some assumptions about the efficacy of financial education that should probably be studied carefully. There is a lot of research that challenges the usefulness of financial education. The Bureau should grapple with that research before it invests heavily in financial education implementation.

Financial Education: Miles to Go Before We Can Sleep Easily

The CFPB has posted Financial Empowerment Training for Social Service Programs: A Scan of Community-Based Initiatives. The report opens well, with Gail Hillebrand, the Associate Director for Consumer Education and Engagement, noting that

Consumers need four things to be financially empowered. First, consumers need consistent access and the ability to choose among high-quality financial services. Second, consumers need sufficient information about the costs, the benefits, and the risks, of choices in the marketplace. Third, consumers need a set of financial habits and skills that constitute financial capability to help them to make the financial decisions that benefit themselves and their families. Finally, consumers need to know that they can get a better shot at achieving their own life goals if they affirmatively seek information, make choices, and take steps to control their financial lives. (1)

No argument there.

But the “scan” in this document makes me fear for a strong connection between what consumers need, as outlined above, and what existing programs are doing.  Finding 9 of the report state that “Most training initiatives targeted at case managers recommended some form of assessment of the effectiveness of the initiatives, but few tracked whether case managers were using this information with clients.” (6-7)

This was the only finding that really talked about evaluating the success of financial education/empowerment initiatives. And it indicates that programs don’t really try to measure their implementation, let alone their effectiveness.  I have earlier critiqued (and here) the CFPB’s financial education agenda and this most recent report only strengthens my belief that the CFPB should do more fundamental research on what actually helps consumers make good financial decisions before it begins to fund financial education initiatives.

Financial Literacy Literacy

Personally, I was disappointed by the CFPB’s Financial Literacy Annual Report. It seems to me that the Bureau’s Division of Consumer Education and Engagement is thinking too small in setting forth its research agenda. For its financial education evaluation project,

The Bureau is conducting a quantitative evaluation of two existing financial coaching programs. Financial coaching generally involves one-on-one sessions with clients to increase clients’ awareness of their financial decisions and to provide support for clients to reach financial goals mutually set by the coach and client. (46)

Seems to me that there are some fundamental questions about financial literacy that need to be studied before small, resource-intensive projects like financial coaching are. I have blogged about these issues before, but the bottom line is that there is no solid empirical evidence that financial education achieves good results in general. So why study particular initiatives?

I would like to see the Bureau engage in a broad survey of financial literacy first and then develop a research agenda that reflects the big issues, including

  • do improved disclosures improve outcomes for consumers?
  • do consumers have the basic math skills to take advantage of disclosures?
  • what useful metrics exist for measuring the impact of financial literacy initiatives?

These are just a few big questions that I would want to answer before I looked at particular programs.

The Bureau should start from the premise that we have little reason to believe that financial education works.  Let’s build up a body of knowledge from there. If we assume that it works, as the Bureau’s current research agenda implies, then that assumption can lead us on a wild goose chase as we study program, after initiative, after project, looking for that golden-egg laying goose.

Financial Education on a Wing and Prayer?

The CFPB released its report, Feedback from the Financial Education Field, which summarizes responses to an Request for Information on Effective Financial Education.  The CFPB is required by Dodd-Frank to establish an Office of Financial Education “to educate American consumers and help them make better-informed decisions.” (5)  The CFPB states that this “statutorily-mandated function serves as an important component of the CFPB’s consumer protection work.” (5)

But the feedback that the CFPB received is very disturbing.  Not surprising, just disturbing.  The report finds that “there is little systematic evidence about what approaches are most effective, for whom, and under what conditions.” (3) As of now, there “is a limited amount of rigorous evaluation on the effectiveness of financial education strategies and practices. A substantial amount of research in the field does not include control groups or use randomized control trials, and thus only limited compelling conclusions about financial education can be drawn, and often they cannot be reliably extrapolated to broader populations.” (11)  Very basic things about financial education are still unknown.  For instance, the CFPB acknowledges that there is uncertainty as to whether there is “a clear connection between financial knowledge and behavior.” (3)

For now, the CFPB should devote its efforts to evaluating “curricula, tools, and programs in order to identify programs and practices that are proven to improve financial outcomes.” (17)   It is depressing to think that the CFPB might use a significant portion of its resources to promote financial education initiatives without strong evidence that they will work. So the CFPB should hold off on making significant investments in this area until it can identify successful strategies through evidence based practices. Too much of housing policy is based on sketchy academic research. Such research is readily relied upon to support politically palatable or ideologically driven decisions.  But the CFPB should avoid taking the easy road as it will undercut its legitimacy and credibility in the long run.

 

 

 

 

The Financial (Mis)Education of Lauren Willis

Lauren Willis has posted Financial Education:  Lessons Not Learned and Lessons Learned.  This is a sobering, even depressing, overview of what we know about the efficacy of financial education.  This is an extremely important topic because the CFPB has identified financial education as a core part of its mission in its Strategic Plan (see Outcome 2.2).

Willis asks, “Does financial education work as hoped?” (125) She answers her own question:  “Empirical evidence does not support the theory. Some (but not all) studies show a positive correlation between financial education and financial knowledge or between financial knowledge and financial outcomes. But no strong empirical evidence validates the theory that financial education leads to household well-being through the pathway of increasing literacy leading to improved behavior.” (125)

Some of her her other important conclusions (based on a thorough review of the literature) include

  • “the only statistically significant effect of mandatory personal financial training on soldiers was that they adopted worse household budgeting behaviors after the training than before it.” (126)
  • “Youth who took a personal finance course in high school do not report better financial behavior several years later than youth who did not take the course.  Adults who attended public schools where they were required to take personal financial courses were found to have no better financial outcomes than adults who were not required to take such courses.” (126, citations omitted)
  • One “reason financial education is unlikely to produce household financial well-being is that consumers’ knowledge, comprehension, skills, and willpower are far too low in comparison with what our society demands.” (128)

Willis’ conclusions should caution against assuming that financial education is a proven method to reduce the impact of predatory practices in the consumer finance sector.  The CFPB has shown a willingness to test the efficacy of its approaches.  Hopefully it will do so with its financial education initiiatives too.