Tag Archives: New York City

The Ghosts of the Housing Bubble

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NYC Councilmember Daniel Garodnick has released a report, The Ghosts of the Housing Bubble: How Debt, Deterioration, and Foreclosure Continue to Haunt New York after the Crash. The report opens,

New York continues to have the highest rents in the country and a housing crisis that has lasted for decades. Many residential rents are below market value – a result of the myriad of state and local laws that have been implemented to protect working and middle class tenants from being forced out of their homes. This gap between the current affordable rent and potential fair market value can fuel the imaginations of investors and owners who dream of squeezing out the unrealized value hidden in these properties. This leads some developers to make riskier and riskier decisions following visions of real estate fortune, only to find themselves tilting at windmills, stuck with unpayable mortgages and escalating maintenance costs. (1)

The report proposes a number of interesting solutions to the problems it identifies, all of which should be looked into further. I am particularly intrigued by the proposal that Community Reinvestment Act exams should include a review of “the quality of the investments being made, measuring if banks are lending mortgages to landlords with portfolios of distressed housing. Were their bad loans to be reflected in their CRA ratings, banks might change their behavior.” (8)

But as with a similar ANHD report, the magnitude of the proposed solutions does not seem to match that of the identified problems. Market forces are extraordinarily powerful in NYC right now. It is unclear whether initiatives such as the “First Look Program,” which gives “good developers the first opportunity to buy” properties in foreclosure, can do anything when valuations are so frothy and predatory equity is on the prowl. (1)

That being said, the report is still quite valuable for shining light once again on the problem of owners who seek to illegally force rent regulated tenants out of their homes.

 

NYC’s Housing Affordability Challenge

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NYC’s Comptroller Stringer has issued The Growing Gap: New York City’s Housing Affordability Challenge. The report tells

a sobering story—of stagnant incomes, rising rents, and a deepening affordability crunch, especially for the working poor and others at the lower end of the income spectrum. This financial squeeze comes despite significant housing investments during the 12 years of the Bloomberg mayoralty. From 2000 to 2012, this report found:

• Median apartment rents in New York City rose by 75 percent, compared to 44 percent in the rest of the U.S. Over the same period, real incomes of New Yorkers declined as the nation struggled to emerge from two recessions.

• Housing affordability—as defined by rent-to-income ratios—decreased for renters in every income group during this period, with the harshest consequences for poor and working class New Yorkers earning less than $40,000 a year.

• There was a dramatic shift in the distribution of affordable apartments, with a loss of approximately 400,000 apartments renting for $1,000 or less. This shift helped to drive the inflation-adjusted median rent from $839 in 2000 to $1,100 in 2012, a 31.1% increase. In some neighborhoods – among them Williamsburg, Greenpoint, Ft. Greene and Bushwick in Brooklyn, average real rents increased 50 percent or more over the 12-year period.

• The elderly and working poor are making up a growing portion of low-income households with 40 percent of the increase tied to households in which the head is 60 years or older.

• In 2000, renters earning between $20,000 and $40,000 in inflation-adjusted dollars were dedicating an average of 33 percent of their income to rental costs. Twelve years later that average jumped to 41 percent. Their housing circumstances became more precarious even though their labor force participation rates soared.

It is clear that affordable housing remains one of New York City’s most pressing needs. Mayor de Blasio has laid out a goal of creating or preserving 200,000 units of affordable housing over a 10-year period, an ambitious increase over the 165,000 units pledged under Mayor Bloomberg’s 12-year New Housing Marketplace Plan.

Now, with the winding down of one major housing initiative and the launching of another, it is appropriate to take stock of the City’s housing circumstances, to evaluate the changes that have taken place in the city’s housing ecology, and to outline strategies for future housing investment that are informed by the city’s evolving housing landscape. (1)

While the report diagnoses many of the problems in the housing market, it does much less in terms of proposing solutions to them. It also fundamentally misunderstands the role that new housing plays in the housing market (see page 24). The report only focuses on the high rents for the new units without taking into account the fact that those new units reduce the pressure on rents for older units of housing, a process that housing economists refer to as “filtering.” There is no question that the CIty needs to increase the supply of housing if it wants to reduce the cost of housing overall. The de Blasio Administration understands this. We will have to wait and see how the Mayor’s housing plan, to be released in May, will tackle the under-supply problem head on.

Affordable Flood Insurance in NYC

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The Rand Corporation has posted Flood Insurance in New York City Following Hurricane Sandy. The report has a chapter on affordability issues that is worth a read, particularly as the de Blasio Administration undertakes its ambitious affordable housing plan. The report notes that

many New Yorkers will face substantially higher flood insurance premiums moving forward. Many more structures will be in areas considered high-risk than in the past, and premiums for many structures already in high-risk areas will be based on considerably higher flood levels.

*     *    *

These substantial premium increases will reduce the disposable income or wealth (or both) of many households and may well be unaffordable for some. In the absence of intervention, the consequences may be foreclosures, turnover, and hardship for some of New York City’s more-vulnerable citizens.(63)

The book goes on to review a variety of approaches “for addressing the affordability issue.” (67) It reviews “tax credits, grants, and vouchers that could be applied toward the cost of flood insurance.” (63) It also notes that such interventions distort “the price signal that incentives property owners to invest in risk-mitigation measures in order to reduce premiums.” (67) It considers proposals to deal with such distortion, such as a means-tested voucher program that is coupled “with a requirement that mitigation measures be taken that make sense for the property.” (67) The book only scratches the surface of this topic, noting that more “information is needed to address the advantages and disadvantages of alternative strategies for addressing affordability.” (68)

As the de Blasio Administration considers the preservation portion of its affordable housing agenda, one could imagine that a concerted effort to incentivize risk mitigation while also promoting affordability could be a significant component of the final plan. Solutions could range from deferred payment, due on sale or refinance of a home, to outright subsidies as outlined by the Rand report. Whatever the ultimate solution is, the problem should be incorporated into the City’s planning now.

Affordable Housing and Air Rights in NYC

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NYU’s Furman Center released a report, Unlocking the Right to Build: Designing a More Flexible System for Transferring Development Rights. While its title does not reflect it, the report is really about increasing the supply of affordable housing in New York City. It opens,

New York City faces a severe shortage of affordable housing.  . . . Addressing this shortage of affordable housing is one of the biggest challenges facing the new de Blasio administration. The city’s affordable housing policy will undoubtedly require many strategies, from preserving the existing stock of affordable units to encouraging the construction of new affordable units. Over the past decades, the city has managed to subsidize the development of new affordable units in part by providing developers with land the city had acquired when owners abandoned properties or lost them through tax foreclosures during the fiscal crisis of the 1970s. Almost none of that land remains available, and the high cost of privately owned land poses significant barriers to the production of new affordable housing.

In this brief, we explore the potential of one strategy the city could use to encourage the production of affordable housing despite the high cost of land: allowing the transfer of unused development rights. As we describe in further detail below, the city’s zoning ordinance currently allows owners of buildings that are underbuilt to transfer their unused development capacity (often referred to as transferable development rights or TDRs) to another lot in certain circumstances. (1-2, footnotes omitted)

The report estimates that buildings below 59th Street in Manhattan that cannot use all of their development rights because of landmark restrictions could generate sufficient TDRs to produce about 7,000 affordable housing units. That number would be a significant step toward Mayor de Blasio’s goal of producing or preserving 200,000 units of affordable housing, so there is no doubt that this policy is worth a look. And the fact that one of the authors of the report, Vicki Been, is now the Commissioner of NYC’s Department of Housing Preservation and Development will ensure that it does get such a look!

The report acknowledges that loosening the restrictions on TDRs has downsides as well, such as the possible construction of big buildings that are out context of neighboring properties. But the report is intended as a “first step” in the exploration of an innovative land use policy. (19) And it certainly is a step in the right direction.

Unsexy but Essential: NYC’s Infrastructure Needs

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The Center for an Urban Future has released a much-needed report, Caution Ahead: Overdue Investment for New York’s Aging Infrastructure. The report finds that

too much of the city’s essential infrastructure remains stuck in the 20th Century—a problem for a city positioning itself to compete with other global cities in today’s 21st Century economy.

*     *     *

This report finds that city agencies and authorities will have to invest approximately $47.3 billion to maintain the safety and functioning of New York’s infrastructure—leaving a $34.2 billion capital funding gap at the city, Port Authority, New York City Transit, Housing Authority and CUNY over the next five years. This funding gap includes only the replacement and repair of existing infrastructure—not new structures or increased capacity. (3)

Good government reports like this are often heeded for a day or two in the press and then filed away with other examples of wishful thinking. The fact is that it is hard for politicians to fix the old when it is so much more noteworthy to do ribbon cuttings for the new. But given that Mayor de Blasio has placed housing construction at the top of his agenda, a report like this might gain more traction than usual.

The report highlights work that is needed to be in the following areas, among others:

  • Roads
  • Subways
  • Natural Gas
  • Electricity Distribution
  • Water Mains
  • Sewage Pipes
  • Stormwater Management
  • Parks

All of these infrastructure needs are integral to large scale housing construction. Large, new buildings need to be supported with investments across these areas. This is a cost. But large scale housing construction also provides the opportunity to upgrade infrastructure more broadly. Concentrated development makes it more cost-effective to upgrade and modernize the infrastructure that supports new developments as well as their surrounding areas. There is no question that the de Blasio Administration should integrate infrastructure improvement with its ambitious affordable housing agenda. It may not be able to get two for the price of one. But with proper planning, it certainly could get two for less than the price of two.

Housing Affordability in NYS

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The NYS Comptroller issued a report, Housing Affordability in New York State. The report finds that

The percentage of New York State households with housing costs above the affordability threshold, as defined by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), rose for both homeowners and renters from 2000 to 2012, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. As of 2012, more than 3 million households in the State paid housing costs that were at or above the affordability threshold of 30 percent of household income. Within that group, more than 1.5 million households paid half or more of their income in housing costs. Statewide, the estimated percentage of rental households with rents above the affordability level increased from 40.5 percent in 2000 to 50.6 percent in 2012. (1, footnote omitted)

The report suggest that “that many New Yorkers are feeling pressure from a combination of stagnant or declining real income and increasing housing costs. A combination of factors including comparatively slow economic growth over time, a rising real estate tax burden, and limited housing supply in many areas of the State contribute to the increasing challenge New Yorkers face in finding affordable housing.” (2)

A pretty consistent theme on this blog is that limits on housing production necessarily limit housing affordability. While this seems obvious to me (perhaps I hang around too many economists?!?), it certainly is not to other people. Many people with whom I discuss affordable housing policy acknowledge that in theory, limits on the supply of housing should effect the price of housing (they all took Econ 101 when they were in college). But they look around New York City, see new high rises going up while housing prices are going up at the same time. They then doubt that increasing the supply of housing will reduce the cost of housing. All I can say is who are you going to believe — your Econ 101 teacher or your own lyin’ eyes?

But of course that is not a compelling argument. So I tell my interlocutors that it is necessary to take into account the fact that NY is seeing a dramatic increase in demand. This demand comes from the increasing resident population as well as the inflow of the ultra rich who want a (fifth?) part-time home in NYC as well as a safe place to park some capital. This high demand masks a problem that NY has faced for decades — too little new housing construction to support the existing residents, let alone all of the new residents.

The de Blasio Administration has acknowledged the need for increased housing construction as part of its program to increase housing affordability in the five NYC counties. The Comptroller’s report acknowledges that a similar dynamic is occurring throughout New York State. Perhaps Governor Cuomo will identify ways in which the State government can take a leading role in encouraging housing construction in all 62 of New York State’s counties.

Reiss on NYC Development

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Law360 quoted me in Domino Deal Shows De Blasio Can Play Nice With RE Cos. (behind a paywall). The story reads in part,

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio’s affordable housing deal with the developer of the Domino Sugar factory, despite being for a unique project, may be a harbinger of how the mayor will implement his affordable housing goals without hampering the market, experts say.

When De Blasio first took office, many in the real estate community, and their attorneys,were concerned that the new mayor’s “tale of two cities” approach to governing might elevate the development of affordable housing to the detriment of other types of projects.

While his administration is still young and the Domino Sugar project is a unique one that had previously been approved in a different form under former Mayor Michael Bloomberg, experts say the way De Blasio handled negotiations that led to the project’s City Planning Commission approval on Wednesday may be a positive sign for the future.

*     *     *

But the mayor’s willingness to reach out directly to a developer and negotiate for terms that fit his goals — De Blasio wants to add or retain 200,000 affordable units over the next 10 years — without harming the deal will be noted by developers.

“One data point does not make a trend, but as a symbol at the beginning of the administration, I think it’s a pretty powerful one,” said David Reiss, a real estate professor at Brooklyn Law School.

Community Preservation Corp. and Kattan Group LLC had originally planned to build a $2.2 billion, 2,200-unit residential project in place of the Domino Sugar factory, but the plan stalled in 2012, and the partners began looking for a new buyer.

When Two Trees Management Co. was chosen in June 2012, the developer purchased the property for $185 million after a long court battle with Katan. The approvals process then began anew, and Two Trees’ revised plan — for 2.3 million square feet of residential space, plus office and retail components — was certified for review in November.

This week, as the City Planning Commission was poised to cast its vote on Two Trees’ plan, De Blasio stepped in to ask for a larger affordable housing component. The project called for about 660 units, but the mayor wanted about 60 more in exchange for zoning changes Two Trees would need to construct the development.

Two Trees Principal Jed Walentas told the New York Times that the mayor’s request was “not workable,” and onlookers worried that the mayor’s relationship with the real estate industry, which had thawed after a Real Estate Board of New York speech in which he assured developers that he wanted them to “build aggressively,” might again be chilling.

But the fears were premature; the mayor and developer reached a deal late Monday that would yield an additional 110,000 square feet of affordable housing at the development.

In connection with the deal, Two Trees agreed to construct 700 permanently affordable units ranging in size to accommodate small and large families that will be integrated throughout the complex.

“This agreement is a win for all sides, and it shows that we can ensure the public’s needs are met, while also being responsive to the private sector’s objectives,” Deputy Mayor of Housing and Economic Development Alicia Glen said in a statement.

That balance will not be lost in the city’s development community, even if another project of this size and complexity doesn’t come around any time soon, experts say. There are many developers looking to do deals in the city, and many of them may now feel at least a bit more comfortable that their needs will be understood by a mayor with an ambitious affordable housing plan.

“He took a line and stuck to it and got what he wanted, without killing the deal,” Reiss said. “That’s a good thing from the development perspective.”