Silicon Valley’s Housing Crisis

photo by Smitha Murthy

Drop in the Bucket?

Realtor.com quoted me in Could There Really Be Relief Ahead for Silicon Valley’s Housing Crisis? It opens,

Finally! A glimmer of hope has appeared in Silicon Valley’s housing crisis. Amid gloomy and downright terrifying stories about astronomical home prices and tighter-than-tight inventories forcing well-paid tech workers to live in vans, pay $2 million for a tear-down shack, or ponder commuting to work from Las Vegas, there seems to be some good news for a change: City Council members in Mountain View, CA, approved plans to build 10,250 new homes in the area.

Given that Mountain View has only about 32,000 homes total, this will increase its housing inventory by a whopping 32%—all purportedly within “walking distance” (possibly a bit of a long walk) of tech giant Google, which has long been lobbying on this front and will no doubt break out the Champagne once developers break ground. Sure, it may be years before these homes become a reality, but even the idea of them may have many locals (or those moving there) daring to dream. Might this new influx of housing cause home prices to drop within reasonable reach?

As logical as this renewed optimism about Silicon Valley’s housing market might seem, experts aren’t so sure home prices will budge all that much.

“This news in itself will not drive down prices much,” says David Reiss, research director at the Center for Urban Business Entrepreneurship at Brooklyn Law School. “While a 10,000-unit commitment is significant, Silicon Valley as a whole has about 3 million people living there.”

So if you consider the population of the entire area—many of whom would likely kill to move to Mountain View—10,000 new houses would house only 0.3% of these people. For you math-challenged, that’s less than a measly half-percent! 

And even though the number of homes may be edging upward, so are the number of people moving there.

“Silicon Valley remains a booming economy, so it’s likely that the population will continue to grow, further driving up prices,” Reiss continues.

As further evidence that more homes doesn’t necessarily lead to cheaper home prices, Florida Realtor® Cara Ameer points to another historically hot market: New York City.

“In New York, more new buildings has had no impact on housing prices or rents,” she says. If anything, the only change New Yorkers noticed is their neighborhood got a lot more cramped. The same will likely be true for picture-perfect Mountain View.

“The biggest thing people will see is increased congestion,” says Amer, “with many more residents, cars, and the need for schools and additional services.”

In fact, fears of overcrowding might even galvanize current homeowners in the area to show up en force at future City Council meetings to fight the greenlighting of additional developments—that is, unless they’re out-muscled by employee-hungry firms such as Google.

“As key businesses realize that the lack of housing is hurting their ability to recruit and retain good employees, it is possible that Mountain View’s decision is a harbinger for more pro-development decisions throughout Silicon Valley,” Reiss explains. “Current homeowners, called ‘homevoters,’ tend to make their anti-growth views known to local officials, but once the interests of local businesses focus on the lack of workforce housing, it can change the dynamics.

“These are powerful companies. The result is that those decisions can become more pro-growth than is typical for suburban communities.”

Risky Rent-to-Own

photo by Steve Snodgrass

The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review quoted me in Rent-to-Own Option for Home Shoppers Rife with Pitfalls, Experts Caution. It opens,

Finding the right rental house was more difficult than Phyllis Lombardi anticipated.

“It’s hard to find a big enough house that allows pets, for the number of people we have in South Fayette,” said Lombardi, 45. She and her husband have four children living at home.

The Lombardis are moving because the owners of the house they are renting want to sell. But the couple isn’t ready to buy. The husband’s income was cut by more than half when they relocated to the Pittsburgh area several years ago, and they are repairing their finances after a short sale on a home.

Finding no rentals in South Fayette that meet her criteria and price, Lombardi is going with an option suggested by her real estate broker: Pick a house for sale on the market and do a rent-to-own contract with an investor who would buy it.

Rent-to-own agreements require prospective buyers to pay rent with an option to purchase the house at a later date, usually within two to five years. It can broaden the options for people with checkered credit histories who think they might soon be in a position to buy.

But it is an industry with a lot of shady operators and which can prove costly to prospective buyers who are not careful, said David Reiss, a professor of law at Brooklyn Law School.

“In some cases, these programs are based on the idea of hope springs eternal,” Reiss said. “But a large percentage of them are likely to fail.”

The terms of these contracts vary, but renters often pay a premium above market price, with a portion of that going toward the eventual cost to buy the home.

Many times, renters reach the end of the agreement and are still unable to buy, forfeiting everything they have paid — rent, fees and any premium toward the purchase price — to the owner and walk away with nothing, said Max Beier, a real estate attorney Downtown.

“Traditionally, what you’re going to have in these agreements is a default provision that’s pretty harsh,” he said. “Commonly, you’re going to lose 100 percent of the equity you’ve paid.”

And many don’t come with the same renter protections. For example, maintenance and upkeep costs are often the tenant’s responsibility — just as if they owned the home.

Also, the penalty for late rent payments tends to be more severe than the standard 5 percent for a late mortgage payment, and even cause someone to be kicked out of the home, Reiss said.

“The rights you have as a tenant in a rent-to-own situation are not as clear and not as good as if you were a homeowner,” Reiss said.

Keeping Cash on Hand

1127px-American_CashTheStreet.com quoted me in Why Some Investors Are Keeping Large Sums of Money in Cash. It reads, in part,

Investors are still holding large positions in cash amid the continued volatility in the stock market since they remain uncertain about the outlook of the economy.

After being spooked by the markets this year — evinced by the 21 times the Dow gained or lost 200 or more points through March 1 compared to only nine in 2015 — investors are finding a large cash reserve to be a reassuring cushion.

A report by Capgemini and RBC Wealth Management in 2015 cites the total cash held by high net households or those who have $1 million or more investable assets in North America as $3.8 trillion. Out of that total, $3 trillion to 3.5 trillion of those assets are estimated to be in the U.S., said Gary Zimmerman, CEO of MaxMyInterest, a New York-based company that maximizes cash balances for savers.

One reason cash remains popular among all age groups is because the sentiment of the economy, job growth and markets is viewed unfavorably. Data on the amount of cash that consumers keep in checking or savings accounts or CDs are not tracked.

“Cash is still a favored asset for investors, because frankly, people are nervous about the economy,” said Sean Stein Smith, a CPA in Hackensack, N.J.

Even wealthy people are allocating large sums of their assets in cash, with 23.7% of high net worth people keeping their portfolios in cash in 2015, according to the report.

 *     *     *

Homeowners should also consider starting a repair fund in addition to having emergency savings to cover household expenses, said David Reiss, a law professor at Brooklyn Law School in N.Y. Some repairs need to be made immediately such as a roof leaking during the rainy season or the boiler during winter months.

“A homeowner who wanted to be conservative could put an amount equal to 10% of his or her mortgage payment into a comparable fund for home repairs,” he said. “There is probably not one right answer for everyone. Some people are handy and can do all sorts of repairs themselves, others can’t.”

Docs You Need for A Mortgage

photo by LaurMG

HSH.com quoted me in The Documents You Need To Apply for a Mortgage. It opens,

When it comes time to apply for a mortgage in 2016, you might be surprised at how much documentation you’ll need when applying for a home loan.

J.D. Crowe, president of Southeast Mortgage in Lawrenceville, Georgia, says most of the documentation should be familiar to you if you have applied for a mortgage loan in the last five years. If you’re new to the mortgage market this year, he says, this is all new.

The new Qualified Mortgage rules that took effect on January 10, 2014 make this paperwork even more important. To meet the new Qualified Mortgage rules, lenders will be even more diligent in collecting the paperwork that proves that you can afford your monthly mortgage payments.

David Reiss, professor of law at Brooklyn Law School in Brooklyn, N.Y., says that while the documentation requirements under the new Qualified Mortgage rules might come as a shock to those who haven’t applied for a mortgage since 2008, they are common-sense requirements for the most part.

“These are really common-sense rules,” Reiss says. “The new rules say that mortgage lenders are no longer allowed to throw out the common-sense standards of lending money during boom times, when they might be tempted to overlook long-term financial goals for quick profits. If the rules help that happen, they’ll be a good thing.”

The Future of the Sharing Economy

photo by Dennis Yang

I was interviewed on PBS’ Nightly Business Report (produced by CNBC) about the near-term future of the sharing economy in the wake of the horrible shootings in Kalamazoo, allegedly by an Uber driver while he was working for the service. You can find the interview here (my segment appears right after the 22nd minute). A transcript of the interview follows:

SUE HERERA: So, will the tragic Uber shooting spree over the weekend change the way that people feel about the sharing economy?

Let’s turn to David Reiss for his thoughts. He’s professor of law at Brooklyn’s Law School Center for Urban Business Entrepreneurs.

Nice to have you here, David. Welcome back.

DAVID REISS, BROOKLYN LAW SCHOOL PROF. OF LAW: Thank you.

HERERA: I guess that is the question. Do you think it will change the way people feel about the sharing economy, this case in particular?

REISS: I think we have to look at the short term and long term. In the short term, we’ll see people will think twice about it. But in the long term, and as I think people think about their experience with sharing economy services and seeing how frequently terrible and tragic incidents like this occur, I think we’re going to see a return to probably some growth in that area as people put this into perspective.

BILL GRIFFETH: Are you surprised as our reporter Kate Rogers pointing out here that in their conference call just now, they seem to be digging in their heels on not changing their background check policies here. Why not, as I said, do that if only for PR reasons just to reassure the public? I mean, this is a PR problem for them right now, isn’t it?

REISS: It is. And I think they’re probably in crisis response mode. They’re probably not wanting to make big promises about big changes to acknowledge that their business model is intrinsically flawed and they will probably want to make changes on their own time.

HERERA: There have been more calls for more regulation of the sharing economy, specifically by those who are impacted in a negative way by the sharing economy. We have to put that out there. But do you think it opens the door a little bit wider for regulation?

REISS: I certainly do. I think there’s been this attitude of it’s better to ask forgiveness than to ask permission and an incident like this and all of its tragic consequences raise the argument that maybe that’s not the right way to go, that getting it right the first time is better than kind of seeing how it unfolds.

GRIFFETH: Growing pains in the sharing economy or is this a real dent? What do you think?

REISS: I think it’s growing pains. I think the sharing economy has been growing so rapidly with so many innovations. But I think it’s here to stay. I think people are voting with their feet in terms of using the services and government is trying to figure out how to adapt and how to regulate and what’s the appropriate level of regulation.

HERERA: Does it change, though, their liability? Do they have to change some of their policies, all of their policies because there’s a liability issue? And the weekend’s horrible events really point that out.

REISS: I think businesses react to lawsuits and to large judgments, and if courts and juries find that this behavior was negligent or reckless, they will get a clear message and they will change to adapt. I think that regulators are going to look carefully at them. So, I think a lot of this is in flux and I’m sure there’s going to be changes. I don’t know what they will be.

GRIFFETH: Have you used Uber and will you think twice, if not?

REISS: I’ve used Lyft, and I would continue to do.

HERERA: All right. On that note, David, good to see you again. Thanks for joining us.

David Reiss with Brooklyn Law School’s Center for Urban Business Entrepreneurs.

Consumer-Friendly Financial Innovation

lightbulbsThe Consumer Financial Protection Bureau issued a Final Policy Statement on No-Action Letters. According to the press release, the policy is intended to facilitate consumer access to financial products and services that promise substantial benefit to consumers.” More specifically, according to the Final Policy Statement itself,

Under the Policy, Bureau staff would, in its discretion, issue no-action letters (NALs) to specific applicants in instances involving innovative financial products or services that promise substantial consumer benefit where there is substantial uncertainty whether or how specific provisions of statutes implemented or regulations issued by the Bureau would be applied (for example if, because of intervening technological developments, the application of statutes and regulations to a new product is novel and complicated). The Policy is also designed to enhance compliance with applicable federal consumer financial laws. A NAL would advise the recipient that, subject to its stated limitations, the staff has no present intention to recommend initiation of an enforcement or supervisory action against the requester with respect to a specified matter. NALs would be subject to modification or revocation at any time at the discretion of the staff, and may be conditioned on particular undertakings by the applicant with respect to product or service usage and data-sharing with the Bureau. Issued NALs generally would be publicly disclosed. NALs would be nonbinding on the Bureau, and would not bind courts or other actors who might challenge a NAL recipient’s product or service, such as other regulators or parties in litigation. The Bureau believes that there may be significant opportunities to facilitate innovation and access, and otherwise substantially enhance consumer benefits, through the Policy. (1-2)

Colleagues and I had commented on this policy when it was first proposed, arguing that it should incorporate metrics to ensure that it is achieving its stated goals. It does not seem that the CFPB agreed with our comments. So, while I think the final policy is a step in the right direction, I am not sure if we can really measure how good of a step it is.

Best Time to Sign a Lease

photo by Beth Kanter

The Allstate Blog quoted me in What’s the Best Time of Year to Sign a Lease? It opens,

There is no way around it — apartment hunting can be stressful. And the cost of rent can be quite expensive — even outpacing average U.S. salary increases. According to the National Association of Realtors, the cost of rent rose an average of 15 percent while renters’ income only rose 11 percent from 2009 to 2014. However with some planning and negotiating, you may be able to have some more money in your pocket at the end of each month.

Similar to how you can pay more for a winter jacket in October than May, rental rates often vary throughout the year. By planning your move and signing lease terms to help position your next move during the lower rental rate season, you may end up saving some money. 

Research the Demand in Your Area

Just like most things, supply and demand determines prices in the rental market. Not surprisingly, you may get a better deal on renting when demand for condos or apartments are at their lowest. However, if you live in a tight rental market, your choices could be very limited. “In most areas the slow rental season is typically late fall through winter since less people move during this time,” says Scot J. Haislip, vice president, national lease program at the National Apartment Association (NAA).

It is important to understand the rental market you’re looking to move into since rental patterns can vary based on where you live. David Reiss, director of Community Development Clinic in New York City and professor at Brooklyn Law School, specializing in real estate and community development recommends contacting several local brokers to get their perspective on the slower rental periods in your area of interest. He also cautions that some high demand areas, such as New York City or Chicago, currently do not have a slower period for rentals.

Smart Negotiation

Even during the winter months, most landlords are not going to simply hand over a discount — you have to work for it by negotiating with your prospective landlord. Before you broach the subject of price, do your homework by picking up the phone or researching online to compare similar units at the current time. Reiss suggests that you consider asking for a decrease in your monthly rent or a period of free rent.