- The Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies has released America’s Rental Housing: Expanding Options for Diverse and Growing Demand in which it finds that the last ten years have seem an unprecedented growth in the demand for rental housing.
Tag Archives: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
Thursday’s Advocacy & Think Tank Round-up
- A joint study by Enterprise Community Partners and the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, Projecting Trends in Severely Cost Burdened Renters: 2015 – 2025 predicted that, in the coming decade, little would change with respect to 1 in 4 renters being severely rent burdened. The researchers examined a number of factors, including: a predicted 10% population increase, declining homeownership rates, and a predicted rise in demand for rental housing. They also looked at a number of possible scenarios to determine how salary gain and population growth would affect the percentage of severely rent burdened households. Even the most optimistic of scenarios would only result in a 1.4% decrease.
- According to analysis by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Existing Home sales fell by 4.8% from July to August despite slowing price growth and a slightly lower interest rate. On the other hand NAR points out that Existing Home sales are 11% higher than August of last year.
- The Turner Center for Housing innovation at U.C. Berkley has released analysis entitled Housing Highlights from the 2014 American Community Survey (ACS) which culls the housing related data from the ACS which is released by the Census Bureau and provides statistical trend charts relating to homeownership, cost and vacancy rates. The Turner Center’s analysis finds, among other things homeownership continuing to slide it is now at 63.1% following its peak in 2006 when it was at 67.3%. But it also finds that the overall housing cost burden is at its lowest point following the bubble.
- According to a recent study by Zillow student debt only reduces chances of homeownership for non-graduates.
Thursday’s Advocacy & Think Tank Round-Up
- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Staff Report, Determinants of Mortgage Default and Consumer Credit Use: The Effects of Foreclosure Laws and Foreclosure Delays, examines the interconnectedness of debt repayment decisions – specifically finding that mortgage default is negatively correlated with credit card and car loan defaults, unless foreclosure is delayed, in which case default rates increase across the board.
- Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies’ Remodeling Futures Program recently released its Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) index which predicts annual spending growth for home improvements will accelerate to 4.0% by the first quarter of 2016.
- According to the National Association of Realtor’s recently released June Existing Home Sales data, sales are now at their highest pace since February 2007 (5.79 million), have increased year-over-year for nine consecutive months and are 9.6 percent above a year ago (5.01 million).
- The National Low Income Housing Coalition has compiled a helpful overview of the new Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing (AFFH) Rule, which was released by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development on July 8th. This document compares the old AFFH rule to the new AFFH rule and finds it makes modest yet positive steps toward encouraging more integrated communities.
- The Urban Institute’s Are You Rent Burdened? Is an interactive calculator the allows one to imput address, income and rental amount to determine whether one is rent burdened.
The Dense State of NYC’s Housing
NYU’s Furman Center released its State of New York City’s Housing and Neighborhoods in 2014. I found its discussion of urban density to be the most notable aspect of this nexcellent and data-rich annual report. The discussion on density concludes,
The renewed attractiveness of New York City since the 1970s means population will likely keep increasing, and so will population and housing density. In 2010, few other U.S. cities had any neighborhoods that matched the density experienced by the typical New Yorker. Yet, by recent historical standards, today’s density levels are not extreme. In recent years, the typical New Yorker lived in a lower-density neighborhood than the typical New Yorker in 1970, as population growth in the city since 1980 was focused in moderate-density neighborhoods. Further, while great disparities in education and crime across neighborhoods exist, these differences are not generally associated with density levels.
High density cities like New York are playing an increasingly important role in the economy as drivers of productivity and innovation. This means the accessibility of the city to new residents is important both for New Yorkers and the nation. We have demonstrated that significant numbers of new residents can be accommodated without elevating density to levels above what the city has historically experienced, and that high-density neighborhoods do not perform lower on key quality of life indicators. City officials will need to ensure that neighborhoods have sufficient infrastructure to accommodate their new residents. (20)
This last point is key: density is not a problem so long as the appropriate infrastructure is built to support it. And while current residents are concerned about the impact of local increases in density, the city as a whole benefits from the increased economic activity and cultural creativity that comes along with heightened density. The De Blasio Administration knows this. Other local elected officials should sign on to increased density along with thoughtful zoning and infrastructure policies.
As a final note, I would compare the transparent acknowledgement of the report’s financial sponsors in the front matter with the much less transparent acknowledgment found in Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies State of the Nation’s Housing 2015 report that I blogged about yesterday.
The State of the Nation’s Sustainable Housing
The Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University released its The State of the Nation’s Housing 2015 report. I typically focus on the discussion of the mortgage market in this excellent annual report. Here are some of the mortgage highlights:
- mortgage delinquency rates nationwide have fallen by half since the foreclosure crisis peaked. But the remaining loans that are seriously delinquent (90 or more days past due or in foreclosure) are concentrated in relatively few neighborhoods; (6)
- According to CoreLogic, 10.8 percent of homeowners with mortgages were still underwater on their loans in the fourth quarter of 2014; (8)
- Despite rising prices, homebuying in most parts of the country remained more affordable in 2014 than at any time in the previous two decades except right after the housing crash. In 110 of the 113 largest metros for which at least 20 years of price data are available, payment-to-income ratios for the median-priced home were still below long-run averages. And in nearly a third of these metros, ratios were 20 percent or more below those averages. (22)
The Joint Center believes that “Looser mortgage lending criteria would help. Given that a substantial majority of US households desire to own homes, the challenge is not whether they have the will to become homeowners but whether they will have the means.” (6) I am not sure what to make of that statement. It seems to me that the right question is whether looser mortgage lending criteria would result in long-term housing tenure for new homeowners. In other words, looser mortgage lending criteria that result in future defaults and foreclosures are of no benefit to potential homebuyers. Too few commentators tie mortgage availability to mortgage sustainability. The Joint Center should take a lead role in making that connection.
One last comment, a repetition from my past discussions of Joint Center reports. The State of the Nation’s Housing acknowledges sources of funding for the report but does not directly identify the members of its Policy Advisory Board, which provides “principal funding” for it along with the Ford Foundation. (front matter) The Board includes companies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which are directly discussed in the report. In the spirit of transparency, the Joint Center should identify all of its funders in the State of the Nation’s Housing report itself. Mainstream journalists would undoubtedly do this. I see no reason why an academic center should not.
Thursday’s Advocacy & Think Tank Round-Up
- Capital New York reports another study which finds that non-whites are at a disadvantage when it comes to securing a home loan, this is more pronounced in the conventional loan market (less so for FHA loans). Includes an interactive chart which breaks down the stats by borough.
- Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies’ Annual State of the Nation’s Housing 2015 reveals historic lows in homeownership rates, and a corresponding “rental boom,” a shortage in supply for single family dwellings, and an increasingly severe rental affordability problem.
- National Association of Realtors’ release of Existing Home Sales statistics for May reveal a strong rebound over April, in fact sales are strongest they have been in 6 years, with first time homebuyers making up the biggest portion of buyers.
- NYU Furman Center’s new working paper – Utility Allowances in Federally Subsidized Multifamily Housing – advocates four policy changes which would help HUD increase energy efficiency in the properties it subsidizes. These include, 1. Incentivizing owners to switch to individually metered units; 2. Incentivizing owners to make energy saving upgrades; 3. Provision of utility allowances that are affordable but make recipients bear the cost of consumption; 4. Provide information about relative utility costs to increase tenant purchasing power.
Thurday’s Advocacy & Think Thank Round-Up
- Federal Reserve Bank of NY Study Insolvency after the 2005 Bankruptcy Reform finds that the decline in bankruptcy filings resulted in a rise in the rate and persistence of insolvency as well as an increase in the rate of foreclosure.
- Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies’ Eradicating Substandard Manufactured Homes: Replacement Programs as a Strategy, this paper aims to make recommendations for the design of nonprofit-based programs for the replacement of older, substandard manufactured housing and its potential as an affordable housing solution.
- The Technical Assistance Collaborative (TAC) and the National Low Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC) released Creating New Integrated Permanent Supportive Housing Opportunities for ELI Households: A Vision for the Future of the National Housing Trust Fund. This report highlights important innovations in affordable housing financing policy designed to benefit Extremely Low Income (ELI) households, including people with significant and long term disabilities who need Permanent Supportive Housing (PSH). According to the authors, PSH approach is a highly cost-effective best practice housing strategy that combines ELI housing with voluntary community-based support services.
