Tag Archives: New York City

Economic Factors That Affect Housing Prices

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photo by TaxRebate.org.uk

S&P has posted a paper on Economic Factors That Affect Housing Prices. This is, of course, an important topic, albeit one that is an art as well as a science. While S&P undertook this analysis more for mortgage-backed securities investors than for anyone else, it certainly is of use to the rest of us. The paper opens,

The U.S. domestic housing market has experienced a 23% price increase since the beginning of the housing recovery in 2011. Many local housing markets are now close to or above their peak levels of 2006, which leads us to investigate whether the pace of home price appreciation (HPA) can continue at its current pace. In this paper, we (1) examine the economic factors that influence HPA and (2) forecast HPA for numerous geographic regions assuming various economic conditions over the next five years. While the aggregate national pattern in housing prices is an important reference, we need to examine housing prices at a more granular geographic level in order to understand regional housing market dynamics and learn how these are affected by local macroeconomic factors. This paper demonstrates that several economic variables are needed to predict average home price movements for each of 48 different U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs).

*     *      *

Factors that influence HPA can be difficult to predict. Therefore, residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) investors frequently use a range of HPA projections to estimate their potential bond returns. With that in mind, for each MSA, we considered five separate hypothetical economic scenarios, ranging from an “Upside” forecast to an extreme “Stress 3” case. Interestingly, our Stress 3 case forecasts a 28% decline in HPI at the national level over the next five years, which corresponds roughly to the decline experienced in the last recession. Our “base case” scenario leads to forecasts at the national level of a 26% increase in HPI over five years. This represents what we believe to be the most likely economic forecast. (1-2)

S&P’s key findings include:

  • Movement in HPA is primarily influenced by up to five variables, depending on the MSA: housing affordability, changes in shadow inventory, the unemployment rate, the TED spread [a measure of distress in the credit markets], and population growth.
  • HPA in many MSAs has momentum, meaning that it depends on its level in the previous quarter of observation.
  • The mortgage rate generally appears to have little predictive power in connection with home prices.
  • Chicago, Houston, Boston, and San Francisco are projected to appreciate at a greater pace (45%, 40%, 27%, and 36%, respectively) than the 26% forecast for the nation as a whole over the next five years, and New York at a slower pace (21%). Columbus led all MSAs with a projected five-year HPA of 50%.
  • Under our most pessimistic (Stress 3) scenario, Chicago is forecast to experience a greater decline in HPI (34%) over the next five years than the nation as a whole (29%), while New York, Boston, Houston, and San Francisco are projected to experience declines that are less severe than that of the nation (19%, 3%, 17%, and 16%, respectively). Markets that have been vulnerable in the past (Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Riverside) are projected to experience the greatest five-year declines under our Stress 3 scenario (66%, 68%, and 68%). The markets that show the greatest movements are the most sensitive to the five factors and frequently show the greatest upside and downside. (2-3, emphasis in the original)

I found the first and third bullet points to be the most interesting, as many pundits weigh in on the factors that affect housing prices. It will be interesting to see if further research confirms S&P’s findings.

Best Time to Sign a Lease

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photo by Beth Kanter

The Allstate Blog quoted me in What’s the Best Time of Year to Sign a Lease? It opens,

There is no way around it — apartment hunting can be stressful. And the cost of rent can be quite expensive — even outpacing average U.S. salary increases. According to the National Association of Realtors, the cost of rent rose an average of 15 percent while renters’ income only rose 11 percent from 2009 to 2014. However with some planning and negotiating, you may be able to have some more money in your pocket at the end of each month.

Similar to how you can pay more for a winter jacket in October than May, rental rates often vary throughout the year. By planning your move and signing lease terms to help position your next move during the lower rental rate season, you may end up saving some money. 

Research the Demand in Your Area

Just like most things, supply and demand determines prices in the rental market. Not surprisingly, you may get a better deal on renting when demand for condos or apartments are at their lowest. However, if you live in a tight rental market, your choices could be very limited. “In most areas the slow rental season is typically late fall through winter since less people move during this time,” says Scot J. Haislip, vice president, national lease program at the National Apartment Association (NAA).

It is important to understand the rental market you’re looking to move into since rental patterns can vary based on where you live. David Reiss, director of Community Development Clinic in New York City and professor at Brooklyn Law School, specializing in real estate and community development recommends contacting several local brokers to get their perspective on the slower rental periods in your area of interest. He also cautions that some high demand areas, such as New York City or Chicago, currently do not have a slower period for rentals.

Smart Negotiation

Even during the winter months, most landlords are not going to simply hand over a discount — you have to work for it by negotiating with your prospective landlord. Before you broach the subject of price, do your homework by picking up the phone or researching online to compare similar units at the current time. Reiss suggests that you consider asking for a decrease in your monthly rent or a period of free rent.

Tough Edge for Financial Services

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Maria T. Vullo %>

Maria Vullo

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Law360 quoted me in Cuomo’s DFS Nominee Likely To Keep Tough Edge (behind a paywall). It reads, in part,

Although New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo turned to a longtime BigLaw attorney to lead the New York State Department of Financial Services, observers say the agency is likely to continue taking the aggressive regulatory and enforcement stance that has become its calling card.

The governor tapped Paul Weiss Rifkind Wharton & Garrison LLP’s Maria T. Vullo to lead the DFS, completing a monthslong search to replace former New York Superintendent of Financial Services Benjamin M. Lawsky. In turning to Vullo, Cuomo brings on a litigator and former prosecutor with 25 years of experience in the law, including two decades of representing banks.

But given the reputation that the DFS has built up since it burst onto the scene with its $340 million sanctions violation settlement with the U.K.’s Standard Chartered PLC in 2012, advocates and observers believe that if confirmed, Vullo will continue to push for tough enforcement and big penalties against the banks, insurers and other financial firms that the DFS oversees.

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However, because Vullo comes from a BigLaw background with extensive experience representing financial firms, some have raised concerns that the agency will become less aggressive in enforcing New York state’s financial regulations.But observers who spoke to Law360 said her noncorporate experience gives a clearer picture of how she might run the DFS.

Vullo has been an advocate for women in the legal profession and represented women who sued for damages after being raped during the war in Bosnia between 1992 and 1995, helping secure a $745 million verdict in that case.

And in her work for Cuomo during his tenure as New York’s attorney general, Vullo oversaw a staff of around 200 that worked in the office’s investor protection, antitrust, real estate finance, consumer fraud and Internet bureaus.

In that position, she took action against Ezra Merkin and Ivy Asset Management for their roles in defrauding investors in Bernard L. Madoff’s $65 billion Ponzi scheme, as well as launching an investigation and action against Ernst & Young for investor losses in Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s 2008 bankruptcy.

Those past experiences should allay any fears that Wall Street’s critics might have, said David Reiss, a professor at Brooklyn Law School.

“I thought that Governor Cuomo would seek an aggressive replacement for Lawsky,” Reiss said. “Vullo fits the bill.”

To that point, financial reform and other advocates said in interviews that they knew little about her, but were encouraged by what they did know.

“What we’re hoping is that the reputation that the department has established will continue through the new leadership,” said Andy Morrison of the New Economy Project, a New York-based advocacy group.

Indeed, Cuomo has an interest in maintaining an aggressive DFS.

The billions of dollars in fines it collected from banks have gone to fund state infrastructure projects, including the construction of a new Tappan Zee Bridge across the Hudson River north of New York City.

And that get-tough approach has also been a way to attract voters.

“My sense is he benefits from the halo effects of an aggressive DFS,” Reiss said.

Dollar Homes

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Packmatt

Realtor.com quoted me in Buy a House for a Buck? The Real Story Behind $1 Listings. The story reads, in part,

Hidden deep within the bowels of real estate listings are a few head-scratchers that would no doubt catch any bargain hunter’s eye. They’re homes for sale for the grand total of one crisp American dollar. So what’s the deal? Are they for real?

I decided to find out by actually clicking, and calling, and learning the stories behind these tempting facades. And it turns out, $1 listings can mean many things. Here’s what this lowball price is actually all about.

*     *     *

Possibility No. 3: It truly is for sale for $1, but…

The next four places for $1 that I check out are all rundown properties in Detroit. They range in description from “fire damage sold as is” (translation: a charred pile of lumber—pic below) to “bungalow with three bedrooms, one bathroom, basement and much more” (translation: “more” means plywood for windows and doors).

Still, some houses sit on decent lot sizes of 3,000+ square feet in neighborhoods that seem habitable at first glance. The listing agent won’t return my call, but I track down an agent willing to show me the various rundown homes. Though back taxes or liens on the property may jack up the price, I ask whether the house will really sell for $1. “Sure,” he says. “This is Detroit.”

Now that I’ve found a true $1 listing, should I hand over a George Washington for one of these fixer-uppers?

“When a house is being sold for a dollar, it means that the local real estate market has cratered,” says David Reiss, professor of law at Brooklyn Law School who focuses on real estate issues and community development. “Land has no value. Or even worse, it has negative value and buyers of $1 homes will end up getting snookered. Owning land comes with various mandatory expenses like real property taxes. It’s possible the true value is even lower than a dollar. In that case, you will see a lot of $1 houses staying on the market, as hard as that is to believe.”

Reiss further explains how the Motor City’s market cratered so deeply: “Real estate’s value typically comes down to location. If jobs have disappeared, if residents have disappeared, if services have disappeared—then value disappears.”

Beyond having zero worth, a $1 home is likely a gaping money pit. When the New York Times ran a piece on the subject in 2007, it found that “the houses often require hundreds of thousands of dollars in renovations.”

Though my search for $1 properties was a bust in the end, there once were $1 homes worth buying. “Think of New York City,” says Reiss. “Homes that were abandoned in the 1970s are now selling for seven figures.”

Bottom line? One-dollar listings may be a risky gamble, but, hey, you never know.

 

Craziest Real Estate Windfalls

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"Le Voyage dans la lune" by Georges Méliès - Roger-Viollet

Realtor.com quoted me in A Brief History of Crazy Real Estate Windfalls. It opens,

Real estate is one of those things where it’s hard to differentiate between a once-in-a-lifetime deal or an epic bomb without the benefit of hindsight. Want proof? Let’s take an invigorating jog down memory lane and view a few of the land swaps that are considered the most lopsided in history—windfalls for one side, colossal blunders on the other. Let’s crack open the history books!

Proof that Portugal needs better maps

The historical highlights: In the 15th century for the Treaty of Tordesillas, global superpowers Portugal and Spain sat down with a map of the world (as they knew it in the 1400s) and drew a line down the middle. Portugal got everything on the left, Spain on the right. Even Steven, right? Not quite. Once they decided to actually look at their new “empire,” Portugal found it basically had nothing (well, besides Brazil), while Spain had pretty much the entire world (you know, Europe, Asia, Russia…).

It taught Portugal a harsh lesson: Approaching land deals the way the kids in “Family Circus” deal with sharing toys is not a viable global expansion strategy.

Real estate update: Granted, Portugal botched this deal at the table, but it’s not quite as bad as it sounds. According to David Reiss, a professor at Brooklyn Law School and research director for the Center for Urban Business Entrepreneurship, the treaty was “heavily modified afterward” to give Portugal more land to the west, including control over most of the Indian Ocean.

Still, in the end, no one won: Both empires eventually shrank back to the size you see today. If Spain won anything, it’s the language war: Most of Central America speaks Spanish, while only Brazil parlays in Portuguese.

America goes through a major growth spurt

The historical highlights: In 1803, America made its historic Louisiana purchase, buying 828,000 square miles of land from France for $15 million—roughly the catering budget of an “Avengers” flick today. That territory gave the fledgling nation a hell of a growth spurt, adding land that would become 15 Midwestern states from Arkansas to, of course, Louisiana.

Real estate update: It was a lot of land, and it cost a lot at the time. But it was totally worth it. “You got New Orleans, so right there it was a good deal,” says Reiss. “If you look at the home sales in New Orleans today, $15 million is the price of just the top four most expensive houses combined.”

The Alaskan ‘oil rush’

The historical highlights: In 1856, Russia negotiated with U.S. Secretary of State William Seward to sell Alaska for about 2 cents per acre, or $7.2 million. The purchase was derided, and the American people quickly dubbed Alaska “Seward’s Folly.”

Real estate update: Most people think that the measly $7 mill we spent on Alaska is pocket change compared to the gushing vats of cash funneling into the U.S. through the Alaska oil pipeline, right? Not exactly.

“We think of Alaska and its pipeline, and we think it’s a great deal,” says Reiss. “But economists have deduced that the pipeline earns the government less than it costs to govern Alaska, so it’s a net loss. Calling it ‘Seward’s Folly’ makes sense.”

$24 for … Manhattan?

The historical highlights: It’s one of the oldest stories in our history—Savvy Dutch settlers, preying on the naiveté of the Canarsie Indians, bought all of what would become Manhattan for $24, less than the price of a sweater from a Times Square Forever 21.

Real estate update: True, New York City is estimated to be worth $802.4 billion today, and Manhattan is its busiest hub. However, before you express outrage about those poor Indians, consider this: It was the Dutch who got conned. You see, the Canarsie Indians who brokered the deal didn’t live in Manhattan. Sure, they’d hop over there to party with the Manhattoes tribe, but it wasn’t their home and they certainly had no right to sell.

“The common story is that the Europeans swindled the natives,” says Reiss. “But it does look like the other way around.” (The Manhattoes, however, are another story.)

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Man sells the moon

The historical highlights: In 1967, the United Nation Outer Space Treaty stated in regard to our moon: “No nation by appropriation shall have sovereignty or control over any of the satellite bodies.” In 1980, a Nevada resident named Dennis Hope came to the conclusion that the treaty forbade nations from owning the moon but not individuals. So he wrote a letter to the U.N. saying he was taking ownership and that it should contact him if it had any issue with that. The U.N. did not respond, and he’s been selling moon acreage ever since. Hope claims to have sold over 600 million acres, with the largest going for over $13 million.

Real estate update: If he really has those checks in hand, then Hope is a genius and this is indeed a very lopsided deal—he’s selling uninhabited land that will be completely inaccessible in the lifetimes of the buyers. Not that we should necessarily applaud him for it.

At worst, “I’d classify him as a huckster,” says Reiss. “And it appears his interpretation of the law is incorrect. The fact that the government hasn’t responded to his letter doesn’t give him rights to the land.” So, even if he does have all that money, it could get him in a whole lot of trouble.

Mandatory Inclusionary Zoning in NYC

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"East New York" by MMZach

New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer issued an analysis of Mandatory Inclusionary Housing and the East New York Rezoning. It opens,

In an effort to address the City’s ongoing affordable housing crisis, the New York City Planning Commission is currently proposing a series of zoning changes, including Mandatory Inclusionary Housing (MIH) and Zoning for Quality  and Affordability (ZQA), for potential application in communities across the city. One neighborhood targeted for significant redevelopment is the East New York/Cypress Hill area of Brooklyn. While many Community Boards have already expressed a variety of concerns about the proposed rezonings, the ultimate question comes down to this: does the proposal help or hurt the existing affordability crisis — in East New York and across the five boroughs? (1)

The analysis concludes that “the City’s own data shows that the current plan could inadvertently displace tens of thousands of families in East New York, the vast majority of whom will be unable to afford the relatively small number of new units that will be built.” (1)

In place of the Mayor’s plan, the Comptroller proposes the following principles, among others:

  • target density to sites primed for affordable housing
  • ensure affordability for existing, low-income residents

While the Comptroller is right to highlight the impact of zoning changes on existing residents, his principles do not seem to lead to a better result for a city starved of new housing. Targeting density to sites primed for affordable housing will result in many fewer housing units because it applies to far fewer parcels. Ensuring affordability for existing, low-income residents will mean that subsidy dollars will have to be concentrated on fewer units of affordable housing.

This debate between the Mayor and the Comptroller highlights two key issues. First, every plan to increase affordable housing has winners and losers. Second, affordable housing policies almost always have to choose between providing moderate subsidies to many units or deep subsidies to fewer units. While the Comptroller’s analysis highlights those tensions in the Mayor’s plan, it does not acknowledge them within its own. There are no easy answers here and those who are truly committed to increasing the supply of affordable housing in NYC must make sure not to let the perfect become the enemy of the good.

The Marvel of NYC’s Water Supply

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Rocket Thrower & Unisphere by Jim Henderson

Another school holiday, another museum. The family and I went to the Queens Museum. Although I am a lifelong New Yorker, I had never been there before. It is a great, small museum, with just a few galleries. It is right smack in the middle of Flushing Meadows-Corona Park. The museum is a stone’s throw of the majestic Unisphere, which is even more amazing from close up. We had gone to see the survey of Zhang Hongtu‘s work, which was very good. But readers of this blog would likely be more interested in two exhibits on long-term loan to the museum. The first is From Watersheds to Faucets: The Marvel of New York City’s Water Supply System:

For the 1939 World’s Fair, city agencies were invited to produce exhibits for the New York City Pavilion, now the Queens Museum. Each exhibit shared “what the various branches of municipal government are doing to serve the citizens of today.”

To educate New Yorkers about the water supply system, the Department of Water Supply, Gas, and Electricity, created the relief map now displayed at the Queens Museum. A team of cartographers began work in 1938 with a depression-era budget of $100,000, roughly $1.5 million in today’s dollars. But at 540 square feet, the model was too big for the allotted space. Ten years later, it made its only public appearance in the City’s Golden Anniversary Exposition at Manhattan’s Grand Central Palace.

In 2008, after decades in storage, the 27-piece relief map was in desperate need of conservation. The model was sent to McKay Lodge Fine Arts Conservation Lab in Oberlin, Ohio and restored to its original brilliance. In collaboration with the New York City Department of Environmental Protection, it will now remain on long-term loan in its originally intended home in the New York City Building.

The second exhibit is pretty famous and it is very cool to see up close: the Panorama of the City of New York, the biggest full-scale architectural model in the world. The Panorama was commissioned for the 1964 World’s Fair. The museum has kept the Twin Towers on the Panorama, which is pretty powerful, once you notice it.

The two exhibits together give you a sense of the grandeur of a world-class city both in itself and within its broader physical context. Another thing to put on your NYC bucket list.